Market Recap - Sep 21

The Dow were up 7 points to 10761 after rising as many as 80 points after the Fed statement.

I expected the market to go up after 2:15pm today and since no firm changes, which we already know, the market should come down. That is why in my intraday I said I will sell the SNDK and buy it back. However, I am stuck in the meeting and couldn't do it today. It is Ok. Everyday we have chance. Now what I concerned is the ATHR, how I can recover my loss today.. It went up crazy for almost 10%!!! Currently ATHR is below its 20,50 and 200MA. Very short term , the 7 days now is above its 14 days MA,, a warning signal. Option 1: dump and recover from other positions. Option 2: buy call do a straddle.. then a big transaction cost.

It broke my rules of 30% stop loss this time,, coz the unexpected huge up price is really out of my expectation after some Analyst upgrade this stock and set target price around 45.

I will keep close watch on this one and dump it if it gets worse.

I will look at SNDK tomorrow and ADBE too tomorrow. Not too bearish about the market but even in bullish market, there are still some stocks that I pick for short term PUT options. Basically, after today's red figures, ppl starts to concern and think of the market peak and turn over. I am flexible and will just adjust myself to the trend.. If it points to the north, I will go north.. If it changes, I change the same time. And I never try to guess if it is peaked or not,, because human brain are not programmed to compete with Super computers.

SNDK is a good short run, one day for 40% gross profit,, which is good to see and will keep it up.

updates -intra day 9/21

Closed position - SNDK at 5.15. May buy it back after 2:15pm.

current position- Sep 21

It has been some days since last blog. Kelly is just back from China and sticks to me like a tail. But i do keep trading these days.

Currently position I have:

1. HK Oct 18.00 P: bought at 2.57 Current : 2.97

2. FSYS Oct 26 C: bought at 7.8 Current: 10.20

3. ATHR Oct 26 P: bought at 1.2 current: 0.55

4. SNDK Oct 40 P: bought at 3.88, current: 5.1

Big Loser on ATHR, because it raised up 5% more today!

Recommended the ETF of EPI for intermediate term position on Sep 10, by that time the price is around 23.60. Today is 26.05. EPI is still good to hold and if price goes down, can buy more positions. My expectation for this stock is at least above 27.

Will follow up after the market close today.

Because of today's FOMC, it will swing up and down around 2pm and the market will try to pick the direction. Since the engine of the car started and ran so fast yesterday, the momentum will be there and it needs some days for the engine to slow down. Let s see if the pivot day will be 9/21 or not. S &P stands above 1130, the resistance point that tested 3-4 time previously, I am not quite sure how bear this market will be.. The up trend is there and VV is showing confirmed up signal since around Sep 10.

Google Finance: Stock market quotes, news, currency conversions & more

From Mitch King:

U.S. stocks were up throughout the day Wednesday but

gave up almost half of the day’s gains before the end of

today’s session. The indexes opened strong today after

a bond auction in Portugal helped ease fears over

European banks. Stocks later began to sell off after text

of President Obama’s speech on business tax breaks

was made available, and the Fed’s Beige Book showed a

deceleration in economic growth across the country.

From Schaefffer Research:

My view:

As summed by yesterday.. I think the market is scary but today's up is kind of expected. So for the next few days, I will pay attention to the S & P:

It will be in a new round of bounce back (overbought). If S &P can withhold 1090, it can go up to 1130. Or it will retrace back at least to 1040.

Let s watch tomorrow's jobless claim index. A bad number will definitely pull the market down as hard as it can.

Today's market recap - Sep 7, 2010

Today's market review:

VIX: Gap up and close above 200 MA, bullish!

NASDAQ: LH, LL, close with higher volume

DOW: Hit 200MA and pulled back, closed n dark cloud cover with lower volume

	Equity Options			Index Options			Interest Rate Options			Total			Put / Call
Time	Calls	Puts	Total	Calls	Puts	Total	Calls	Puts	Total	Calls	Puts	Total	Ratio
9:00 AM	166277	88909	255186	63962	107725	171687	0	0	0	230239	196634	426873	0.85
9:30 AM	252339	145087	397426	151689	348635	500324	0	0	0	404028	493722	897750	1.22
10:00 AM	336835	192328	529163	181539	373595	555134	0	0	0	518374	565923	1084297	1.09
10:30 AM	407299	236537	643836	223181	447538	670719	0	0	0	630480	684075	1314555	1.09
11:00 AM	467880	266934	734814	252491	491445	743936	0	0	0	720371	758379	1478750	1.05
11:30 AM	503388	294157	797545	279879	538748	818627	0	0	0	783267	832905	1616172	1.06
12:00 PM	539449	321353	860802	298990	860571	1159561	0	0	0	838439	1181924	2020363	1.41
12:30 PM	581461	341237	922698	318601	916836	1235437	0	0	0	900062	1258073	2158135	1.40
1:00 PM	621110	362773	983883	339903	934585	1274488	0	0	0	961013	1297358	2258371	1.35
1:30 PM	664304	394143	1058447	348207	950520	1298727	0	0	0	1012511	1344663	2357174	1.33
2:00 PM	727283	428999	1156282	374126	985926	1360052	0	0	0	1101409	1414925	2516334	1.28
2:30 PM	769925	460232	1230157	414602	1031551	1446153	0	0	0	1184527	1491783	2676310	1.26
3:00 PM	829185	499489	1328674	451354	1204554	1655908	0	0	0	1280539	1704043	2984582	1.33

Final Volume and Open Interest information can be found here.

From the index, the market will move down tomorrow again.

However, the higher put/call ratio from today is frightening, normally higher put/call ratio means the MM may hedge their position. normally Higher put/call ratio is an bullish signal.. So it is weird.

From VV: Renewed concerns over the health of European banks caused investors to dump stocks today, causing the Major Indexes to finish sharply lower. A little bearish.

From Schaeffer research: Senior Technical Strategist Ryan Detrick. From a broader standpoint, he thinks the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will eventually break north of its current range between 1,040 and 1,130, but says the big question will be the catalysts. "I think it'll be two things: better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, and the excitement – whether you like it or not – of gridlock coming to Washington this November in the form of the Republicans in power in the House," he explained.

Calendar (All Eastern times)

Wednesday, 10:30am, Crude Inventories

Wednesday, 2:00pm, Fed's Beige Book

Wednesday, 3:00pm, Consumer Credit,

Thursday, 8:30am, Initial Claims, 470K

Thursday, 8:30am, Continuing Claims, 4

Thursday, 8:30am, Trade Balance,

Friday, 10:00am, Wholesale Inventories, 0.4%

My thoughts: Because last week, it is strong up trend, this week after the 3 day holiday, the MM lose the momentum to test the highest point of last Friday.
But it didn't fill the gap from last week, which indicate the equal power between bull and bear. My view of the market trend is that the bull may last for several days for this up wave. The VV still indicates today is UPUP trend. If tomorrow goes down, I may take some long position.

Today's market recap - Aug 30,2010

Market was down most of the day with very lighter volume.

Historical observation from Cobra:

Bad situation if 2 consecutive down days after an accumulation day, which happened today. If the bull cannot withstand it,, a trending down will be mostly occur. Therefore tomorrow will be an important day to watch.

Market sentiment:

After Friday big up, most of the public thinks that the market will keep the momentum for up trend this week. However, it goes against it and today the market went down most of the day. Even I thought the market should go up today...

My thoughts:

1. Currently dont put efforts on guessing whether market will go up or down,, but rather be flexible to deal with current positions in the portfolio. I still didn't put my money into the market yet, which is good thing for me, at least on a conservative way of investment at this moment because the uncertainty and the timing. Remember, all the managers, funding, institutional investment, even retail public are on vocation or not fully invest yet... Therefore, take the chance to learn from the market and keep notes for what happened is what I am doing now.

2. I am doing the paper trading on Options as well. Today based on one recommendation for buying put on NVDA. I did this on paper trading.. And I will post the results later on track the performance and evaluate the recommendation from this website.

3. I still have the position of MRVL. The situation gets worse for this. Now MA climbed up and the short term starts to be above the mid term and longer term,, which is a bullish sign. Today, the market went down greater than the MRVL. The STO is at high level,, the MACD is up, lighter volume... UP BB is up... PPL are hesitating to take more new position at current price level but they are not either at the mode to dump the position. It s too way up away from the support and the UP BB price is 16.76. I will keep close watch for this price. If it breaks this price, it may be a sign for me to close the position. I am ready any time to close it or will stand for a long time to see if it will turn the direction.

4. According to the observation, there should be a up that may above last Friday's high. So I am very cautious now and be prepared for that to happen and pick bearish side put and open new position.

Calendar for next week (Aug 30 - Sep 3 )

Due to my severe shoulder pain, i may pause for the blog till Labor day.

Here is a forwarding post for this week's calendar:

(http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=92538&extra=page%3D1)

(Mitch King as well)

Monday, 8:30am, Personal Income/Spending, 0.2%,0.3%

Monday, 8:30am, PCE Prices-Core, 0.1%

Tuesday 9:00am, Case-Shiller 20-City Index, 3.5%

Tuesday 9:45am, Chicago PMI 57.5

Tuesday 10:00am, Consumer Confidence, 50

Wednesday, 8:15am, ADP Employment Change, 13K

Wednesday, 10:00am, Const. Spending/ISM Index, -0.7%,53.0

Wednesday, 10:30am, Crude Inventories

Wednesday, 2:00pm, Auto/Truck Sales, 3.9M,5.1M

Thursday, 8:30am, Initial Claims/Continuing Claims, 475K,4435K

Thursday, 8:30am, Productivity - Rev. -1.6%

Thursday, 8:30am, Unit Labor Costs, 1.1%

Thursday, 10:00am, Factory Orders, 0.3%

Thursday, 10:00am, Pending Home Sales, 0.0%

Friday, 8:30am Nonfarm Payrolls, -118K

Friday, 8:30am, Unemployment Rate, 9.6%

Friday, 8:30am, Hourly Earnings, 0.1%

Friday, 8:30am, Average Workweek, 34.2

Friday, 10:00am, ISM Services, 53.2

This week will be a "nuclear power"-driven week:
Monday, Aug. 30
8:30 a.m.: PCE inflation gauge for July, at the Commerce Department.

Tuesday, Aug. 31
9 a.m.: Second-quarter bank earnings, released by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corp.

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence for August, released by the Conference Board.
8 p.m.: President Barack Obama addresses the nation on the Iraq war, from
the White House.

Wednesday, Sept. 1
8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report on private payrolls for August, released by
Automatic Data Processing.

10 a.m.: ISM manufacturing index for August, at the Institute of Supply
Management.

Thursday, Sept. 2
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, at the Labor Department.
8:30 a.m.: Second-quarter productivity revision, at the Labor Department.
10 a.m.: Factory orders for July, at the Commerce Department.

Friday, Sept. 3
8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm payroll and unemployment report for August, at the Labor
Department.
10 a.m.: ISM services index for August, at the Institute of Supply
Management.