Monday, July 12, 2010

Three Bar Reversal and Go

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=86860&extra=page%3D1

I found this interesting and would like to test it.

three-bar-reversal-and-go1.png

1. Volume on the pullback bars should be lighter than the preceding up bars.
2. Trigger bar should be a reversal bar that opens lower and closes near the high of the bar.
3. Make sure that the breakout above the trigger bar has some conviction behind it.


Sunday, July 11, 2010

DO charts - www.bestfreecharts.com



Current Position - DO charts.

It hitted the BB up in the narrow band. MACD, RSI, STO indicate up trend. Volume didn't show very strong support for the up trend. Look back for historical price patterns, my guess is either will up for a little bit then head down. Stop loss at 30%, average price for PUT 80 is 15.90- 16.00. Hope I can make profit on this one.


Calendar for next week (July 12- July 16)

Calendar (All Eastern times)
Tuesday, 830am, Trade Balance, -$39.5B
Tuesday, 200pm, Treasury Budget,
Wednesday, 830am, Retail Sales ex
Wednesday, 830am, Retail Sales, -
Wednesday, 1000am, Business Inventories, 0.3%
Wednesday, 1030am, Crude Inventories
Wednesday, 1030am, FOMC Minutes
Wednesday, 1030am, Crude Inventories,
Thursday, 830am, Initial Claims, 46
Thursday, 830am, Continuing Claims
Thursday, 915am, Industrial Production,
Thursday, 915am, Capacity Utilization, 74.1
Thursday, 1000am, Philadelphia Fed
Friday, 830am, CPI (Consumer Price Index),
Friday, 900am, Net Long Term TIC Flows
Friday, 955am, Michigan Sentiment, 47

The key economic report this week will be June Retail Sales on Wednesday.

stock market time

Be a full time trader doesn't mean you have to trade all the time, a couple of hour per day is sure enough. The market trade time is something like this:

1. First hour trade can almost depict whole day trend. We can divide the first an hour into 3 session, early, middle, late. If the whole day trend is away from the first hour trade trending, it means the big gap or difference away. We have to pay special attention to that.

2. Mostly the time is as follows:

Premarket:

Lower volume, some index disclosed, or yesterday's after market earning/pre-marketing earing released, big fluctuation in the price, high risk to get position or sell. Some website will send out emails around 8:30 to forecast the market trend, key reports, calendar, earnings report, basically based on the futures, global market index, commodities, gold, gas, currencies... which is really for all of us to pay attention and know what happened and what will happen today. Anyway, it s high risky and I do not normally do any trades at this time.

9:30- 9:45 :

Agent to put the order for customers order, if you have Tier 2, you will see a lot of orders are put. Institution will normally get into the market after 9:45.

10:00- 10:30:

Critical time, a lot of numbers, index are released, which will decide the wind of the market. A lot of critical convert (up/down) trend up or trend down start to show. Bullish/bearish sides' fight start. Therefore, the first hour is always the most important hour for me to keep close watch of the market. Most of the day traders focus on the first hour to make their trades and take profit.

11:30-1:30:

Lunch time!!! Break time!!! Normally you will see slow motion and low volume. Every one need to eat, so do I. Take the time to review some comments from the website, google, yahoo. wsj, IBD, have a cup of coffee.. yeah, by the way, i quit my Coke, which I used to have more than 3 a day. ( 1 can of Coke = 18 spoons of sugar).

1:30 - 2:30:

Battle resume again. Agents keep on customer orders.

2:30:

Critical time. Institution in ,the time may start from 1:30.. A lot of change, reversals occurs. Super computer programs, time triggers. If I see big trend or wave happen during this time, i am not surprised.

3:00- 4:00:

Day trader time!!! Especially the last half 30 mins. Recently we saw a lot of selling off or buying happened during this time period. Yeah, that is right. Day traders do not keep position over night, including some institutions. It causes the market widen up and I am not surprise to see sometime my profit is totally wiped off, which is very annoying, and put the potential risk for gaps for next day's opening price. For DOW, 50 points or 100 points up or down during this time periods is not odd for recent market. Selling off or buying from big institution may misdirect the individual investor to blind follow, which will push the market toward down or up further. However, this is also a good time for day trade to maximize profit if the judgement they make is right. I always wish that I could be on the lucky side. Even though I am not doing day trading, I use this time to practice my estimating and price support/resistance test, which is not a bad idea.

4:00 - after market

not much activities, unless some companies have earning, big news etc, which will cause big move in the stock price after hours. I assisted one profession on stock research and he always asked me to keep records of the after hour price for his portfolio, which now it is my habit to keep watching the after hour price as well. Some website focuses on the after hour trade as well. Personally, I like the midnight trade.com. But it asked for subscription and it costs money, as always. There is no free dinner in the world.

Wow, I never think I will like to put this into blog.. it s in my brain. If my daughter can read this after 5 years and understand what I am talking here, i believe it worth it. Otherwise, it s nothing.

Good weather today. And it's the Final World Cup between Netherlands and Spain. I know little about them. TV is on and just curious to know the results.


Monday Morning Outlook: DJIA Soared 5 Percent; Best Week Since July 2009

Monday Morning Outlook: DJIA Soared 5 Percent; Best Week Since July 2009

Recap of the Previous Week: Dow Regains 10,000 (July 5 - July 12)

Tuesday morning - Bulls in charge, but later they couldn't maintain, Dow + 0.59% gain

Wednesday - Bulls charged and never looked back. Dow + 2.8%. regain 10,000.

Thursday - Mixed. Jobless down. Market is looking for direction. Bulls took charge for the last one hour and Dow 1.2%.

Friday - DOW + 0.58%. Unemployment rate down. GOOG led up..

NEXT WEEK??

As from the Fibonacci calculation - 1070 above or 980 Down?
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac: early week is bullish and Friday is bearish. (Monday - Wednesday)

July expiration day, DOW down 6 of last 9 times.

July is the best performing month according to their records. 60% last 100 years, 54% last 50 years and 70% last 20 years. Very Positive.

This week is 5% pullbacks. According to Cobra's log, all the past above 6% pullback had at least 2 legs down. So his guess is that there may be one more leg down, which I personally agreed with. See the pic here.

[2LegDown[2].png]

His guess is that June 16 will be the next pivot date for S & P to hit 1099 and June 29 will be a cycle bottom, (based on the magic 9 days cycle shown recently). It is an interesting find and I will focus on that.

ExpectTimeAndPriceTarget.png

Saturday, July 10, 2010

7 stocks in Warren Buffet 's pool

I just read this article and would like to post it here to add some of my comments. (The original article is from http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=201006&postID=25482, it is in Chinese though)

1. BDX
2. XOM
3. GE
4. GSK
5. JNJ
6. LOW
7.SNY

As we all know Warren Buffet's philosophy is based on FA, I am not surprised to see companies like GE, Johnson & Johnson. Pharmaceutical, Engergy, Furniture stocks. Reasonable, mutual list sample of stocks.

JNJ - a good stock for dividend, similar GE, XOM.


Overview of last week's market

Am I crazy to start my blog again?

Yesterday just I gave a close friend on some 101 concepts about TA of Stock research and candle stick chart.

I mentioned the Dry bulk Index and credit balance mutual fund current are all at lower level, which may indicate the market is still weak. So it s a short technical rebound last week that may not last long. Look at the volume, it s keeping lower volume on Friday. As I explained in one of my email, Friday's unemployment index was important. The lower level than last week made the market positive. After checking on the Fibonacci on the S & P charts, S &P if over 1070, it should keep up or it should fall down below 1000.. Friday is up and to the edge. What about next week?

Currently I have Put DO, Aug, 80. The stock price is 64.40. Break even now. Price up and down quite bit, good for intra day swing trade. (5%) at least.. I analyzed the price pattern on Wednesday, everything I forecast was correct.

Need to do more research to see how it goes and when I should get out.

In recent 2 weeks, I feel I am losing my sense for the market and I need to have my focus back again.

Some good websites for prescanning and ticker picking.

www. stockcharts.com
MSN

In next blog I may add more on the TA demo and charts as well.