Tomorrow 's view

Tomorrow we have Retail sales , business inventories and FOMC minutes. If the reports show good, the market will have more momentum for the positive side. It looks like ppl are really over react to the market information. Today even we have some negative news, it didn't stop the momentum for the upside. Market is poised to go up.

I still remain the same viewpoint but may change my mindset that the reversal may be delayed. Let s wait and see. Double side Sword for the market.

My position DO follow up

My position -DO

DO is kind of developed as I estimated yesterday, up and wondering.. However after 2PM, it kept UP and never looked back. I am expecting some news or other clue for this particular rally. I am still wondering if it is institutional trading after 2pm. It s too visibly greater volume from 2pm-close. The DO ends with 1.93% +, which is above the BB and the volume is above MA. STO Peak, MACD +. A DOJI is formed by today for the possible reversal pattern. To valid the pattern, key is tomorrow's open price. If it s below today's price, it valid the pattern. Or if the open price is above today's close, looking for the closing price to make a judgement. Anyway, my stop loss is 30% and I am still holding it till Friday. Remember my previous blogs for this week's analysis, where is the second fall leg?

Stock F chart - For Friend 01

Comments on F (Ford)

These day I am watching F. As I mentioned yesterday, it is in the middle way of rally and hit both the support and resistance. The 14 days MA is still below MA 25 days. Today it gap up and close at 5.05% + with larger volume. STO is peaked and MACD up.

If tomorrow the market is up, the Ford may be up, but BB showed it tends to be overbought and BB up is $12.00. Be careful though for the Gap $11.13 - $11.48. If the price fall back to $11.13. Next level of support will be $10.93. F is very hot these days not only in stock,but also in Option trade. The interesting pattern for today's price is that it s gapped up and never looked back till the last 30mins, the highest increasing is around 7%.

I may sell the position or at least dump half to keep my profit and set up my stop loss higher in case the price goes down I can still have profit.

As I estimated, the market may go down this weekend. Continuous up or down will be followed up by conversion. I hope it s the Friday, because I am still agreeing with the opinion that using this week to reduce the position and even short the stock if you want to make profit.

A Option Website

oar_etf

Today I found a free website for Option Trading. I haven't have a chance to read it yet. I will put my comments on it after some testing and watch for 2 weeks.

Morning call -Alcoa Beats Earnings (NYSE: AA) - Using ETF's In The Rally - Mike Swanson (07/13/10) | WallStreetWindow

Alcoa Beats Earnings (NYSE: AA) - Using ETF's In The Rally - Mike Swanson (07/13/10) | WallStreetWindow

Morning Call:

I totally agree with the opinion.

The earning season starts with AA beats earnings. I still believe that this is the time to reduce on your positions. I will not chase those stocks with positive earning and gap up. It will peak and pull back. In stead, if that happens, it will be a good chance to go short. This week, according to some analysis, it is still the week for lighten positions. Basically the foundation for a bullish market is not solid enough for a near bullish looking.

Anyway, my guess for DO, which I have now is still uncertain, it may go up and wondering,, which I don't hope to see. I am expecting at least Friday some reversal signal will occur.

My position DO follow up

No big change for DO- as I estimated last Sunday, it may go up and head down. That is exactly what happened today. Open higher with a gap and at the first 30mins to an hour, it heads back and kept going down and head back to yesterday's closing price, wondering at that level till market closed.

This is really not a good one stock to have. Some points for me to think about it:

1. the price touched the BB up band, and price started to pull down, in a very narrow range of BB, which direction is it heading to? UP or DOWN?

2. Intra day price bigger than 3-5% vibration. Easy to capture the intra-day trending. but a little confused at the daily chart. MACD/STO keeps up. Volume is down as the price is down. Divergence exist currently in the MACD/STO with the price trend. Short term MA is still above the mid-term MA.

3. It s not so clear now to make judgement whether it will go up or down tomorrow. Reason one: Oil Drilling - related BP and gas price; Reason two: market situation.

Anyway, it s hard for me to see the trend clearly now. I will keep holding it till at least this Friday. (30% stop loss).

Tomorrow will be an important day

Today AA after hour ER and then tomorrow INTC and YUM. JPM and financials will kick off.

After several days up last week, today there is no big sell off , which may be encouraging for the bulls, I may need to adjust my view of the market to the bull side a little bit too. As I mentioned last Sunday, historically the first three days are bullish so I am not so surprised to see a green today. The DJIA finished 0.2% +. Everyone said the leading are tech stocks (MSFT and INTC).

Look at some stocks I am watching:

C is up , above 4 dollars.

BP is up, big news leading

F is is up, in the middle term of rally

NFLX is up, potential for call/put strangle

VMW, I miss the chance for the call, still up now, not good set up last week on Monday, but it rocked up by news.

SNDK is up and never look back.

Levels to Watch in Trading: (from Schafferresearch)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,216.27) - support at 9,500; resistance at 12,000
• S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,078.75) - support at 950; resistance at 1,300
• Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,198.36) - support at 1,900; resistance at 2,600