Today's market summary - June 16,2010

WOW. I felt released a little bit today when the market closed. Why?

Well finally we got the expected weakness that I mentioned earlier in my previous blogs. I expected 3 days up and 2 days down for this week, even though yesterday it was going towards that direction, but was ruined by the GS settlement, besides, this week is OE.

(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TEC9PiG7

G0I/AAAAAAAAGZU/fDWcNMe3rxI/s320/wilshire.png)

Heading to Michigan.

Today's Consumer Sentiment Index

The Index plummet sharply down to 66.5 from 76.0 in June, and it is way below the median forecast of 74.5 among economists, which was the key factor for the market to go down today.

Reuters: It sinks to lowest in 11 months.

PS: consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator. This week's figure is further evidence of an economic weakness and slowdown.

I like this comments. Please read as fas as learning from there.

Sorry it s Chinese.

昨天关市前的猛烈拉升，很可能是MM震仓

目的是明显的，把小熊熊震荡出局，把小牛牛套进来。 小散熊一般是胆小的，设好了止损线，MM迅速上拉大盘，就把一众小散的 SHORT给STOP OUT了。小散牛一见大盘牛气哄哄，马上上套，结果就被 紧紧套牢，第二天低开低走。这就是班长昨天描述的那种情况，先看牛被 STOP OUT，然后转熊，又被STOP OUT，再转牛，又被STOP OUT，连 续被STOP OUT，怎么买怎么被STOP OUT。MM的震仓技术是专门用来 STOP OUT小散的利剑。 震仓的特点是，一段趋势持续很久后，大盘逐渐无力继续，并出现转头迹象 ，这时，突然发生快速的主力介入，意图是避免转头，以保持原来的趋势。 其实这是转头前的一个假动作。特点就是快速的，短时间的，大力度的拉动.

Comments on yesterday's market behavior (7/16/2010)

Yesterday's market is an action movie. Bulls and Bears are fighting,, I mean it is a battle. First, in th morning, SPY confirmed the trend change, but last half hour, it broke the downtrend line.

Today: (from Hutong9.com)

If SPY confirm the trend change again, then bulls wins.
But again heavy resistance is waiting for bulls ahead. Unless bulls gap up and flying higher. If that is the case, run, bears.

Here are my thoughts:

My estimation is still the same tone: yesterday's pull back may lead to higher breakout, so expect recovery high, but the accumulated reversal signal indicate a big pullback ahead. be careful for that if you are still bullish. I am not.

Today's market overview

Yesterday's 100 points drop should indicate the selling signal. It today's European bad news , additional selling off.

Yesterday last 90 mins sharp rebound by the GS rumor wipe off the whole day loss and market climbed up.

BP and GS.

Morning Call: Global stocks are mixed as gains in BP and Goldman Sachs offset losses in Google; Sep S&Ps up +3.70; Dollar index slides to a 2-1/4 month low

Tomorrow is a key day as well

If today is important, tomorrow will also be a key day. 200MA is there. Momentum is still there. So it may possibly go up higher, if that happen with big up, i am ready to accept the stop loss for my position and adjust my mindset to the bullish side.

Otherwise, reversal is certain on the way, which I still believe it is the case unless something really can convince me the opposite.

July 16 i s closing. Hold the breathe and see how we will get there. (Bullish or Bearish)?

DO: 65.91 0.58 (0.89%) - Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc.

My DO follow up - July 14, 2010

DO is still up just before 12PM today and slipped till close. The STO is topped, and MACD widen even, almost hit the top, Price is touch BB Upband, not too much change from yesterday. Still no clear signal for a reversal. The only noticeable is the Volume is down even through the price is up. July 20 is the day for Q2 earning.

According to historical data, market will start to go down by Friday. I still have to keep it till Friday.

DOW hold up the up trend and S& P negative today.

VMW + 3.8%

F: +1.29%

NFLX +1.72%

DO +0.89%