Market Recap - Sep 21

The Dow were up 7 points to 10761 after rising as many as 80 points after the Fed statement.

I expected the market to go up after 2:15pm today and since no firm changes, which we already know, the market should come down. That is why in my intraday I said I will sell the SNDK and buy it back. However, I am stuck in the meeting and couldn't do it today. It is Ok. Everyday we have chance. Now what I concerned is the ATHR, how I can recover my loss today.. It went up crazy for almost 10%!!! Currently ATHR is below its 20,50 and 200MA. Very short term , the 7 days now is above its 14 days MA,, a warning signal. Option 1: dump and recover from other positions. Option 2: buy call do a straddle.. then a big transaction cost.

It broke my rules of 30% stop loss this time,, coz the unexpected huge up price is really out of my expectation after some Analyst upgrade this stock and set target price around 45.

I will keep close watch on this one and dump it if it gets worse.

I will look at SNDK tomorrow and ADBE too tomorrow. Not too bearish about the market but even in bullish market, there are still some stocks that I pick for short term PUT options. Basically, after today's red figures, ppl starts to concern and think of the market peak and turn over. I am flexible and will just adjust myself to the trend.. If it points to the north, I will go north.. If it changes, I change the same time. And I never try to guess if it is peaked or not,, because human brain are not programmed to compete with Super computers.

SNDK is a good short run, one day for 40% gross profit,, which is good to see and will keep it up.

updates -intra day 9/21

Closed position - SNDK at 5.15. May buy it back after 2:15pm.

current position- Sep 21

It has been some days since last blog. Kelly is just back from China and sticks to me like a tail. But i do keep trading these days.

Currently position I have:

1. HK Oct 18.00 P: bought at 2.57 Current : 2.97

2. FSYS Oct 26 C: bought at 7.8 Current: 10.20

3. ATHR Oct 26 P: bought at 1.2 current: 0.55

4. SNDK Oct 40 P: bought at 3.88, current: 5.1

Big Loser on ATHR, because it raised up 5% more today!

Recommended the ETF of EPI for intermediate term position on Sep 10, by that time the price is around 23.60. Today is 26.05. EPI is still good to hold and if price goes down, can buy more positions. My expectation for this stock is at least above 27.

Will follow up after the market close today.

Because of today's FOMC, it will swing up and down around 2pm and the market will try to pick the direction. Since the engine of the car started and ran so fast yesterday, the momentum will be there and it needs some days for the engine to slow down. Let s see if the pivot day will be 9/21 or not. S &P stands above 1130, the resistance point that tested 3-4 time previously, I am not quite sure how bear this market will be.. The up trend is there and VV is showing confirmed up signal since around Sep 10.

Google Finance: Stock market quotes, news, currency conversions & more

From Mitch King:

U.S. stocks were up throughout the day Wednesday but

gave up almost half of the day’s gains before the end of

today’s session. The indexes opened strong today after

a bond auction in Portugal helped ease fears over

European banks. Stocks later began to sell off after text

of President Obama’s speech on business tax breaks

was made available, and the Fed’s Beige Book showed a

deceleration in economic growth across the country.

From Schaefffer Research:

My view:

As summed by yesterday.. I think the market is scary but today's up is kind of expected. So for the next few days, I will pay attention to the S & P:

It will be in a new round of bounce back (overbought). If S &P can withhold 1090, it can go up to 1130. Or it will retrace back at least to 1040.

Let s watch tomorrow's jobless claim index. A bad number will definitely pull the market down as hard as it can.

Today's market recap - Sep 7, 2010

Today's market review:

VIX: Gap up and close above 200 MA, bullish!

NASDAQ: LH, LL, close with higher volume

DOW: Hit 200MA and pulled back, closed n dark cloud cover with lower volume

	Equity Options			Index Options			Interest Rate Options			Total			Put / Call
Time	Calls	Puts	Total	Calls	Puts	Total	Calls	Puts	Total	Calls	Puts	Total	Ratio
9:00 AM	166277	88909	255186	63962	107725	171687	0	0	0	230239	196634	426873	0.85
9:30 AM	252339	145087	397426	151689	348635	500324	0	0	0	404028	493722	897750	1.22
10:00 AM	336835	192328	529163	181539	373595	555134	0	0	0	518374	565923	1084297	1.09
10:30 AM	407299	236537	643836	223181	447538	670719	0	0	0	630480	684075	1314555	1.09
11:00 AM	467880	266934	734814	252491	491445	743936	0	0	0	720371	758379	1478750	1.05
11:30 AM	503388	294157	797545	279879	538748	818627	0	0	0	783267	832905	1616172	1.06
12:00 PM	539449	321353	860802	298990	860571	1159561	0	0	0	838439	1181924	2020363	1.41
12:30 PM	581461	341237	922698	318601	916836	1235437	0	0	0	900062	1258073	2158135	1.40
1:00 PM	621110	362773	983883	339903	934585	1274488	0	0	0	961013	1297358	2258371	1.35
1:30 PM	664304	394143	1058447	348207	950520	1298727	0	0	0	1012511	1344663	2357174	1.33
2:00 PM	727283	428999	1156282	374126	985926	1360052	0	0	0	1101409	1414925	2516334	1.28
2:30 PM	769925	460232	1230157	414602	1031551	1446153	0	0	0	1184527	1491783	2676310	1.26
3:00 PM	829185	499489	1328674	451354	1204554	1655908	0	0	0	1280539	1704043	2984582	1.33

Final Volume and Open Interest information can be found here.

From the index, the market will move down tomorrow again.

However, the higher put/call ratio from today is frightening, normally higher put/call ratio means the MM may hedge their position. normally Higher put/call ratio is an bullish signal.. So it is weird.

From VV: Renewed concerns over the health of European banks caused investors to dump stocks today, causing the Major Indexes to finish sharply lower. A little bearish.

From Schaeffer research: Senior Technical Strategist Ryan Detrick. From a broader standpoint, he thinks the S&P 500 Index (SPX) will eventually break north of its current range between 1,040 and 1,130, but says the big question will be the catalysts. "I think it'll be two things: better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, and the excitement – whether you like it or not – of gridlock coming to Washington this November in the form of the Republicans in power in the House," he explained.

Calendar (All Eastern times)

Wednesday, 10:30am, Crude Inventories

Wednesday, 2:00pm, Fed's Beige Book

Wednesday, 3:00pm, Consumer Credit,

Thursday, 8:30am, Initial Claims, 470K

Thursday, 8:30am, Continuing Claims, 4

Thursday, 8:30am, Trade Balance,

Friday, 10:00am, Wholesale Inventories, 0.4%

My thoughts: Because last week, it is strong up trend, this week after the 3 day holiday, the MM lose the momentum to test the highest point of last Friday.
But it didn't fill the gap from last week, which indicate the equal power between bull and bear. My view of the market trend is that the bull may last for several days for this up wave. The VV still indicates today is UPUP trend. If tomorrow goes down, I may take some long position.

Today's market recap - Aug 30,2010

Market was down most of the day with very lighter volume.

Historical observation from Cobra:

Bad situation if 2 consecutive down days after an accumulation day, which happened today. If the bull cannot withstand it,, a trending down will be mostly occur. Therefore tomorrow will be an important day to watch.

Market sentiment:

After Friday big up, most of the public thinks that the market will keep the momentum for up trend this week. However, it goes against it and today the market went down most of the day. Even I thought the market should go up today...

My thoughts:

1. Currently dont put efforts on guessing whether market will go up or down,, but rather be flexible to deal with current positions in the portfolio. I still didn't put my money into the market yet, which is good thing for me, at least on a conservative way of investment at this moment because the uncertainty and the timing. Remember, all the managers, funding, institutional investment, even retail public are on vocation or not fully invest yet... Therefore, take the chance to learn from the market and keep notes for what happened is what I am doing now.

2. I am doing the paper trading on Options as well. Today based on one recommendation for buying put on NVDA. I did this on paper trading.. And I will post the results later on track the performance and evaluate the recommendation from this website.

3. I still have the position of MRVL. The situation gets worse for this. Now MA climbed up and the short term starts to be above the mid term and longer term,, which is a bullish sign. Today, the market went down greater than the MRVL. The STO is at high level,, the MACD is up, lighter volume... UP BB is up... PPL are hesitating to take more new position at current price level but they are not either at the mode to dump the position. It s too way up away from the support and the UP BB price is 16.76. I will keep close watch for this price. If it breaks this price, it may be a sign for me to close the position. I am ready any time to close it or will stand for a long time to see if it will turn the direction.

4. According to the observation, there should be a up that may above last Friday's high. So I am very cautious now and be prepared for that to happen and pick bearish side put and open new position.

Calendar for next week (Aug 30 - Sep 3 )

Due to my severe shoulder pain, i may pause for the blog till Labor day.

Here is a forwarding post for this week's calendar:

(http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=92538&extra=page%3D1)

(Mitch King as well)

Monday, 8:30am, Personal Income/Spending, 0.2%,0.3%

Monday, 8:30am, PCE Prices-Core, 0.1%

Tuesday 9:00am, Case-Shiller 20-City Index, 3.5%

Tuesday 9:45am, Chicago PMI 57.5

Tuesday 10:00am, Consumer Confidence, 50

Wednesday, 8:15am, ADP Employment Change, 13K

Wednesday, 10:00am, Const. Spending/ISM Index, -0.7%,53.0

Wednesday, 10:30am, Crude Inventories

Wednesday, 2:00pm, Auto/Truck Sales, 3.9M,5.1M

Thursday, 8:30am, Initial Claims/Continuing Claims, 475K,4435K

Thursday, 8:30am, Productivity - Rev. -1.6%

Thursday, 8:30am, Unit Labor Costs, 1.1%

Thursday, 10:00am, Factory Orders, 0.3%

Thursday, 10:00am, Pending Home Sales, 0.0%

Friday, 8:30am Nonfarm Payrolls, -118K

Friday, 8:30am, Unemployment Rate, 9.6%

Friday, 8:30am, Hourly Earnings, 0.1%

Friday, 8:30am, Average Workweek, 34.2

Friday, 10:00am, ISM Services, 53.2

This week will be a "nuclear power"-driven week:
Monday, Aug. 30
8:30 a.m.: PCE inflation gauge for July, at the Commerce Department.

Tuesday, Aug. 31
9 a.m.: Second-quarter bank earnings, released by the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corp.

10 a.m.: Consumer confidence for August, released by the Conference Board.
8 p.m.: President Barack Obama addresses the nation on the Iraq war, from
the White House.

Wednesday, Sept. 1
8:15 a.m.: ADP employment report on private payrolls for August, released by
Automatic Data Processing.

10 a.m.: ISM manufacturing index for August, at the Institute of Supply
Management.

Thursday, Sept. 2
8:30 a.m.: Weekly jobless claims, at the Labor Department.
8:30 a.m.: Second-quarter productivity revision, at the Labor Department.
10 a.m.: Factory orders for July, at the Commerce Department.

Friday, Sept. 3
8:30 a.m.: Nonfarm payroll and unemployment report for August, at the Labor
Department.
10 a.m.: ISM services index for August, at the Institute of Supply
Management.

How to sell a "covered call" - For Friend 01

Someone ask me how to sell covered call. As this question has general meaning, many people may have same question, so I post here with more detail answers, Hope this will help.

Q:
Ask a dumb question: how to apply "covered call"? from where broker? Thanks in advance.

A:
1. First you need to apply option trading capability in your account from your broker or trading firm. Sell covered call is the lowest level in option trading and has the least risk comparing other option tradings.

2. Option is the proxy of stock, it is a right to buy/sell certain stock in certain time period at fixed price. （ Strick Price）
To sell covered one call you should have at least 100 shrs underline stock. One call contact represents 100 shrs stock. One call contract means you have the right to buy 100 shrs of the stock in certain time frame at fixed price.

Sell covered call is just opposite of buying call.
By selling a call contract to a buyer, you have the obligation to provide 100 shrs of underline stock in certain period of time at fixed price. Since you already have underline stock, so your sold call is "covered" by your stock.

If you do not have stock, you still can sell call, but the call you sell is "naked" meaning the call does not has underline stock to cover. If buyer want to use his/her call contract to buy stock, you have to buy stock from market and provide these shares to the buyer at pre-defined price. （ or contact price.） For example. You sell a $50 August call of ABC stock at $2 and stock price is also $50 at the time. 10 days after you sell the call, the stock price went up to $60, the buyer has the right to buy 100shrs ABC stock from you at $50 regardless current stock price. You have to buy 100 shrs of ABC from market and deliver those shrs to the buyer at $50/shr That is dangerous if you are not seasonal trader.

3. After you done 1 and 2, you are ready to sell covered call. There are two parts to decide call price: 1）Intrinsic value 2） Time value which also related to Implied Volatility （IV） of the stock.

1） Intrinsic value: example: stock price is $50, for $45 call has $5 intrinsic value. （50-45=5）
2） Time value: The longer time period of contract contain, the higher time value of contract will have. Example: stock price is $50, For $50 call, there is no intinsic value but only the time value. August $50 call price is $2, so the time value from now to 8/15/08 （OE day） is $2. For Sep. $50 call it cost $3.

You can sell 1 August $50 call and get $2. By 8/15/08, if stock still has price $50 or under, you get $2 as the call contract expired worthlessly. Since you still own the stock, you can sell next month call again.

The IV plays important role in option price. High IV means stock price moving very quick in either direction. High IV generate high time value of the stock option.

For the covered call seller, the best time you sell the covered call is when IV has spike and option become very expensive. Seller has good chance to get profit. For the buyer, just do opposite of it, buy option when IV is low.

Normally, sell next month covered call is the best interest of seller. Because option time value decay within 30 days increase exponentially.

To calculate option price is rather complex, Fortunately there is a Option Price Calculator which can help you to get estimate option price. （Check end of this post.）

SKF August 170 Call this Morning when stock price at $147


4. Something you should know about selling covered call.

Selling covered call is not risk free operation, in general there are two risks involved in this strategy:
1） If stock fall sharply after you sell covered call, you can not cut loss by selling the underline stock.
2） If stock up significantly after you sell covered call, you can not sell the stock before OE to lock in the profit.

It is not suitable for downside protection, since the premium is limited. For those stocks which has singnificant down side risk, this strategy is not suitable.

It is also not suitable for the stock which has significant upside potential in near term, become it locked up underline stock until OE. Share holders could miss good profit opportunities.

This strategy is suitable most for those stocks which moving in a range and having a positive slop in general.

Option Price Calculator:
http://www.hoadley.net/options/optiongraphs.aspx?divs=Y

(forward from: http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance_best&MsgID=11098)

Head and shoulder pattern - Aug 26,2010

SP500 Wave III-1 down started on 8/9 at 1130, wave (3) will be

done tomorrow or early Monday, then (4) up to 1055-60 mid of

next week. The end of wave (5) will be below 950 before

September ends which will conclude wave III-1. Enjoy the ride.

(http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=92222&extra=page%3D1)

Today the market opened high and closed at the low. S&P and DOW

formed a bearish outside day. Nasdaq and Russell back tested the S&H

neckline. The big picture is that market remains bearish, traders sell every

rally. Tomorrow we will have the Q2 GDP second estimate. Market expects

1.4%, but many people think the number is less than 1% all the way down

from 2.4% when it was first reported.

Tomorrow's market guessing - Aug 27, 2010

Today's one news from Forum:

There were massive paper sell orders on the cash close right on 4PM by MS, JP, GS, Chi Corp (used to be ABN AMRO as a lot of people have been private-messaging me asking what Chi Corp is). I counted at least 2000 cars sold (roughly 500 cars each) on the cash close. This is not a good sign for tomorrow. I suspect the institutions are expecting (or already known through their contacts) for a much worse than expected GDP estimate revision.

(http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=92232&extra=page%3D1)

So we expect another down day for tomorrow?

However, according to Cobra, now there is a pattern formed that on bullish reversal day followed by Dark Cloud Cover, which happened previously that indicates tomorrow will be a up day. Let s see.

Candlestick Analysis Today’s Candlestick Patterns: Black Opening Marubozu Bearish Belt Hold Bearish Engulfing

Today a Black Opening Marubozu was formed. This shows that the day opened and prices continuously went down but they did not close at the low of the day and thus they created a lower shadow. For more about this candlestick click here. Bearish Belt Hold Pattern. This is a bearish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. However, its reliability is low and it definitely requires confirmation. For more about this pattern click here. The last two candlesticks formed a Bearish Engulfing Pattern . This is a bearish reversal pattern that marks a potential change in trend. However, its reliability is not very high and it requires confirmation. (http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=MRVL&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S) There are three possible cases of bearish confirmation. You have to follow the session closely to see if these cases will hold or not. The market opens with a downward gap, signaling a bearish sentiment in the first case. Your benchmark will be the opening price. If the prices stay below the benchmark, sell your shares. Any black candlestick with a downward gap is a valid bearish confirmation criterion. In the second case, the market opens at a level, equal to or above the previous day’s close. The benchmark is that closing price. If prices during the session stay below the benchmark, sell your shares. Any black candlestick closing below the previous day’s close is the second confirmation criterion. If, however, in both cases, the prices during the session start going over the benchmark avoid selling. The third case of confirmation is rarely observed. The market opens with a big upward gap suggesting a very bullish day, and the day ends with a black candlestick, but still closing above the previous day’s close. Such a day satisfies the third confirmation criterion and the closing price of the black candlestick is the benchmark. If one of the three confirmation criteria is not fulfilled, or in case of a white candlestick or a doji on the confirmation day, the SELL-IF alert remains valid, however, without confirmation and the three confirmation criteria are then sought in the following day. The only exception is the long white candlestick. Any white candlestick following a SELL-IF alert makes the signal void and invalid. The market looks strong on the short side as evidenced by recent price activity. If the SELL-IF is confirmed, new short selling may be considered

Today's market review and forecast for the near future - Aug 25, 2010

Head and Shoulder Patten. Recently may rebounce and then bearish down.

Summary for the day today: (Mitch King)

After four consecutive down days it is not surprising to see buying kick in

for a snap back rally. The market sold off this morning in anticipation of the

upcoming economic reports, but a bottom was established at the time

reports hit and heavy buying began.

We should see another 1-2 days of buying before more selling occurs. We do

, however, have initial jobless claims and continuing claim numbers tomorrow.

Wall Street will be keying in on this so if the number is substantially greater than

expected, it could spark some selling again.

Therefore, my estimation is: if you bullish, hold it. Bearish, hold it as well, because in recently two or more days , we may see some buying and the market will bounce back, as long as it bounced back, start to short,, because the head and shoulder pattern indicate a short and medium term of trending down.

Chart reading today for index:

VIX: Bearish Engulfing, a reversal signal.

Nasdaq: Bullish Engulfing

DOW: LH,LL with lower volume

S &P: LH, LL, piercing pattern, not sure bullish or bearish.

(http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101925)

In sum, the estimation is : tomorrow market direction mainly depends on the report. 1-2 more days of buying is possible and market may rebounce and then trend down will continue.

Today a Long White Candlestick was formed. This shows that the prices advanced significantly from open to close during the day under strong buying pressure.

A bullish pattern has developed and a BUY-IF alert is issued today. You will see if we erred slightly in the previous SELL signal. A confirmation in the next session may mean that we have underestimated the bullish power of the market. The task is now to confirm the validity of this bullish pattern. We will guide you through this process but the prime star of this game is nobody but you. First you must do your homework. A good starting point may be to keep an eye on after-hours and futures trading to get preliminary hints about the direction of the market. Related news, events, economic data, and the world stock markets should also be closely followed prior to confirmation session.

There are three possible cases of confirmation. You have to follow the next session carefully to check if these cases will hold or not:

The market opens with an upward gap, signaling a bullish sentiment in the first case. Your benchmark will be the opening price. If the prices stay over the benchmark, go long. Any white candlestick with an upward gap is a valid confirmation criterion.

In the second case, the market opens at a level, equal to or below the previous day’s close. The benchmark is that closing price. If prices during the session stay over the benchmark, go long. Any white candlestick closing above the previous day’s close is the second confirmation criterion.

If, however, in both cases, the prices during the session start coming below the benchmark, avoid buying. Sell if you feel a definite tendency in prices to close the day below the benchmark.

The third case of confirmation is rarely observed. The market opens with a big downward gap suggesting a very bearish day, and the day ends with a long white candlestick, but still closing below the previous day’s close. However, such a day satisfies the third confirmation criterion and in this case the closing price of the long white candlestick will be taken as the price of confirmation.

If one of the three confirmation criteria is not fulfilled, or in case of a black candlestick or a doji on the confirmation day, the BUY-IF alert remains valid, however without confirmation and the three confirmation criteria are then sought in the following day. The only exception is the long black candlestick. Any long black candlestick following a BUY-IF alert makes it (the signal) void and invalid.

Do not consider any new short positions given the bullish alert and the recent bullish momentum. Short sellers must cover their positions to prevent further losses, if the market confirms the BUY-IF signal.

(http://www.americanbulls.com/StockPage.asp?CompanyTicker=MRVL&MarketTicker=NASD&TYP=S)

Market Recap:

My observation:

1. This week we will have a lot of reports coming out, and the market will be impacted a lot by these reports results and the direction of the market will be affected by these reports as well. Thursday we will have jobless data and Friday we will have the GDP estimates. Currently the market is still under down trend since Aug 20 " Confirmed Down" by Vectorvest.

2. Today DOW plunged 134 points. A key critical factor is that the existing home sales plunged 27%. My thoughts on this: From last Friday we already know the home sale data will not be good today. That is why in my yesterday's blog I mentioned today's market will possibly down. But the 27% is way beyond expectation!!!!!! Crude futures also collapsed today. An noticeable phenomena currently is that : there is positive correlation between Stock and Oil price. Logic behind this is that if stock market is not good, it will have direct effects on the commodities.

3. My position: I was beaten down by the market!!! Even though the market is down, my position showed strong bullish today with a positive 3%.!!!! with increased volume compared to yesterday and it may seems to be still in the up channel. MACD is up, STO is almost topped, OBV is up channel. My previous strategy for this position is to hold extremely short time ,say 1 or 2 days, as far as the momentum disappear and the price retrace back, I will close the position. Currently it seems that it may maintain its up momentum for a while till it s topped. The current price is still at the UP BB edge.. Therefore, I am playing it a little bit aggressive now,, either hold it for more days or get rid of it tomorrow if the price gap up again or close green. I will keep it posted when situation confirmed the validation of "buy" signal or not.

4. It has been 4 days continuous down, tomorrow it may up.. Greater possibility. This Thursday will be pivot day according to Cobra.. ( maybe an important low day..) Let's watch.

MRVL: 16.22 0.50 (3.18%) - Marvell Technology Group Ltd.

MRVL: 16.22 0.50 (3.18%) - Marvell Technology Group Ltd.

When I opened this position, actually I am checking ATHR and wanted to buy it back since I am looking forward to a bearish market starting from this week and particularly the semi-conductor section is weak. Then I found this MRVL was up almost 10% by the ER. And I thought the momentum of keeping up trend may seem hard especially if the market is trending down. So i changed my pick of ATHR and opened this position. yesterday it went well and today all the profit returned back to the market as MRVL is up today by bigger percent and listed as Today's Big Gainer!!!! While ATHR is under the normal trail and heading down continuously with 3.6% down. I wiped off 150 dollars at least per contract today. A lesson to learn and will keep it up that I should not enticed by some visible signal and should stick to my observation based on TA.

I will still keep close look at this MRVL and see what it will happen tomorrow. Now it s getting hotter and hope not to burn myself because of greedy.

Market Recap: DJIA Breaks Short-Term Support on Late-Day Selling Spree

Market Recap: DJIA Breaks Short-Term Support on Late-Day Selling Spree

No major data today.

Dow: HH, HL, closed in upside down hammer with lower volume. Hit 50MA and pulled back. Bearish.

Nasdaq: Bearish Engulfing with lower volume. Bearish.

S &P: HH.HL,Closed in gravestone with lower volume.Bearish.

VIX: LH,LL, hammer,Bullish.

By the close, all three major market indexes had given back their early gains to finish narrowly below short-term support levels -- opening the door for either an oversold bounce or a fresh wave of selling pressure on Tuesday.

(http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101872)

A chopping day tomorrow?

My position review: MRVL

It s way up at the UP BB. Today it retrace back and closed by 2.72% down, which is expected. It needs to retrace back after such a big up. Currently the whole Tech section is weak by 1.09% down. I need to keep close watch on this one. From the recently two years' data. The price broke up the Up BB, only at the uptrend that the price kept going up.. Currently the price trend for MRVL is down so it s unclear for the particular direction.

MA 7 day is above MA 14, but MA 14 is below MA 25. A little bit unsafe here for the short side. STO is high, MACD is higher, price went down with volume about average. Since this stock is hot now, 1 or 2 more days to watch along with the direction of the market to decide whether to hold it for longer term or close the position. Basically the intermediate term is bearish for the market. And the Hinderberg Omen has got 3rd confirmation. So be cautious.

Calendar (All Eastern times)

Tuesday, 10:00am, Existing Home Sales, 4.75M

Wednesday, 8:30am, Durable Orders 3.1%

Wednesday, 8:30am, Durable Goods -ex. Transportation, 0.5%

Wednesday, 10:00am, New Home Sales, 330K

Wednesday, 10:30am, Crude Inventories

Thursday, 8:30am, Initial Claims, 485K

Thursday, 8:30am, Continuing Claims, 4515K

Friday, 8:30am, GDP - Second Estimate, 1.4%

Friday, 8:30am, GDP Deflator - Second Estimate, 1.8%

Friday, 9:55am, U Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Final, 69.4

It is likely to be negative for that house index.. So it will be not surprising to see the market down tomorrow.

get position for MRVL put option today

FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

MRVL 21.00 SEP 10P - 4.75.

The price is way up at the BB after its ER.

Short term.

Today's market recap - Aug 19,2010

U.S. stocks were down Thursday as disappointing economic reports continue to be the focus point. Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000, and as expected, had a very negative effect on the market. What a surprising number!!!!

The Philadelphia Fed index unexpectedly plunged to negative 7.7 in August, marking a 13-month low.

Chart reading:

Nasdaq: LH, LL, very bearish, hit the 50MA and pull back. Higher Volume.

Dow: LH,LL, bearish, below 50MA, Higher V.

S &P: LH,LL, bearish, below 50MA, Higher V.

VIX: Again found support at 200MA, bearish

My strategy for tomorrow:

Still sideline. No position.

Reason:

1. OE day, historically it s mostly up.

2. From the put/call charts, and the rules of Max hurts, currently more puts Open Interests are still at beyond the current points. Only if the market trend up, these contracts will expire worthless, for all three markets.. therefore, suppose it should trend up tomorrow.

3. However, so bad indices came out today will have big effects on the market and any lower index or worse economic news will have extended influence on tomorrow's market.

4. After a big distribution day, it s more possibly going up next day.

Therefore, under the uncertainties about these, and conflicts in bullish and bearish factors, I am sideline again, but leaning towards the downside. And in hunting mode for any put options, at least for Sep's forwarding. If the market cant rebound, which will strengthen my bearing point of view, then I will definitely go short or start to buy some put options.

Key observing points tomorrow:

1. S &P: 1070 hold or not (if not, cautious!!!) Fib 61.8% at 1056. (From Cobra)

2. Respect the charts!!!

Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1-Aug 19,2010

Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Forwarded from website.

Remember this Hinderburg Omen?

Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1

Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator).

Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain- Aug 18,2010

Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain

Surfing the website for almost 2 hours and still didn't have a clue about the direction of the market tomorrow. So far all the guess about the market for this week is correct.

Struggling to forecast for tomorrow's direction. 50%, 50%. I am lean to a down day tomorrow. But several indicators points to a continuous rebound not over yet. Therefore, no confidence in what to say about tomorrow. And same in cash position today again.

Opening View: DJIA Bulls Lose Momentum After 100-Point Jump

Opening View: DJIA Bulls Lose Momentum After 100-Point Jump

Before the market opening briefing. As I estimated last night, it may lose momentum and open low. Let's see how it goes. Still in hunting mood for deers.

Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain

Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain

Sick today and feel tired.

As expected , yesterday's magic number "5" worked, just joke, But several reversal signal hints today's gap up. Besides, Walmart and Home Depot's Earning will not be that bad accordingly. So my guess proved to be valid and today it had gapped up widely.

Just briefed the market recap and estimated for tomorrow:

uptrend still, may open low an close green.

Keep watching for position for put options or I will just in cash. Don't forget this is OE week and today's up momentum is too strong.

Stock recommend for long term invest -Dividend has double digit for 10 years. (Aug 16, 2010)

Here is the lists of the company that have dividend of double digit for the 10 years and continue to increase the rate in the five years. As a long term investment, these are really good and 100% priority stock to put money in. You can either buy them through DRIP program or buy them at the current market price.

JNJ: Johnson & Johnson

PG: Procter and Gamble

PEP: Pepsi

VFC: VF Corperation

MCD: McDonald

KO: Coca-Cola

Attention: Buffet has JNJ, PG, KO.

I have MCD as long term through DRIP.

Buffet's holding as 06/30/2010 (Filed 08/16/2010)

Forwarded from: (http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=90879&extra=page%3D1)

American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME as last quarter.

Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME as last quarter.

Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.889 million shares, UP FROM 1.744 million shares last quarter and was a raised position last quarter too from 1.5 million shares before and versus 1.2 million before that.

Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is 7,725,900, SAME AS BEFORE; had been reduced from 8 million shares the prior quarter and versus 9 million shares a quarter before that.

Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.

Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, SAME as before.

Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME as before.

ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, A LOWER STAKE than the prior 34.179 million shares and yet another cut from 37.7 million two quarters ago and 57.43 million and 62.485 million before that.

Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME as last quarter but that is after it had been lowered from 5.254 million before.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; SAME as before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.

Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is a NEW POSITION of 4.4 million shares.

Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1,740,231 SHARES; SAME as before, but a decrease from earlier.

General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME as before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.

GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME as before.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is not listed but was a not common stock so is not included in these filings; Buffett still likely holds the preferred shares and warrants.

Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) 2.757 million, SAME as last quarter.

Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) 5.636 million shares, SAME as last quarter but way down from the 7.78 million a year ago.

Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) is 8 Million shares, A HIGHER POSITION versus 7,794,800 shares last quarter, and above 7 million shares and versus 3.3722 million shares in the quarters before then.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is almost41.1.3 million shares, AN INCREASED POSITION from last quarter’s 27 million shares. This gets J&J back above the 36.91 million shares before that and on the way back up to the 62 million shares at one point in 2008.

Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) is 105.21 million, which is DOWN SLIGHTLY from the 106.7+ million a quarter before and down from the 138+ million before he was critical of the Cadbury deal.

Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) 6.5 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.

M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) is 5.363 million, A DECREASE from 5.563 million shares before that and down from 6.71 million shares before that.

Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) 30.783 million, which appears to be a decrease from what we listed as 30.83 million last quarter. This is way down from the 48 million originally before two more quarters of decreases.

NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) was 6 million shares.

Nalco Holding (NYSE: NLC) 9.15 million shares, UP SLIGHTLY from the 9.0 million a quarter earlier.

Nestle ADR is 3.4 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.

Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) 7.641 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.

Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is 70.071 million shares; DOWN SLIGHTLY from over 78.317 million a quarter before and from approximately 87.5 million and 96.3 million in the quarters before that.

Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) is 10.827 million shares; SAME AS BEFORE but still above the prior quarter.

Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) is 4.063 million, which appears to be higher than what we calculated as being “more than 3.9 million shares” a quarter earlier. That one could be a rounding difference.

Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is NOT a common stock… but Buffett still holds the preferred shares and warrants.

Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, SAME AS before.

US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million; SAME AS last quarter.

USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.

United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, SAME AS before.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is just over 39 million; SAME AS last quarter after it had been raised earlier.

Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.

Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: was roughly 325 million shares, which appears mostly static after having been raised in the quarters before.

Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.703 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.