Bullish Monday? - Aug 14, 2010

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, Monday before August expiration, Dow up 11 of last 14.

(http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/)

What do you think?

Forward - Briefing.com's Weekly Wrap ( Aug 14, 2010)

Briefing.com's Weekly Wrap

Additional signs that the strength of the global recovery is waning sparked selling pressure, resulting in sharp losses for the major indices. The S&P 500 declined four consecutive sessions, with the bulk of this week’s loss occurring on Wednesday (-2.8%). Losses were broad-based and trading volume was light, with the NYSE not surpassing 1 million daily shares for the 20th consecutive session. Nine of the 10 sectors declined, with tech (-5.6%), industrials (-5.0%) and financials (-4.9%) coming under the most selling pressure. Defensive- oriented sectors outperformed on a relative basis, with the telecom gaining 0.6%. Risk aversion was also seen in the relative underperformance of smallcap shares, with the Russell 2000 tumbling 6.3%. The FOMC meeting Tuesday marked one of the major events of the week. The Fed held rates unchanged at 0.00% to 0.25%, as expected, and also announced plans to use proceeds from its more than $1 tln holdings in agency MBS and debt to buy longer term Treasuries. The news was not unexpected after last week The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed would be considering the action. But it is a clear sign that Fed is concerned about the economic recovery effort. The news helped drive the 10-year note yield down to 2.64%, marking the lowest level since April 2009. In corporate news, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) dropped 12.5% for the week after company reported that its CEO was stepping down due a violation of HP’s standards of conduct related to expense reports. At the same time, the company reported upside preliminary third quarter EPS of $1.08 versus the $1.07 Thomson Reuters consensus and raised its Fiscal year 2010 EPS forecast. A total of 18 S&P 500 companies reported earnings as second quarter earnings reporting season enters its final stretch. Of those that reported, 13 topped EPS estimates. Cisco (CSCO) reported quarterly results that were slightly ahead of estimates. But the company’s outlook stoked fears of a slowdown, with the CEO saying customers were sending “mixed signals”, sending shares down 11% for the week. Walt Disney (DIS) posted a strong quarter, benefiting from advertising sales at ESPN. The company reported a 16.4% y/y rise in revenue to $10.0 bln, topping the $9.4 consensus. Earnings per share came in at $0.67, easily topping the $0.58 consensus. Despite the beat, shares fell 4.0% for the week. A handful of retailers reported quarterly results. JCPenney (JCP), Kohl’s (KSS) and Macy’s (M) reported better-than-expected EPS, while Nordstrom (JWN) posted in-line results. Only Macy’s stock managed to post a gain for the week, up 3.9%. In economic news, overseas data that supported the notion of a slowdown in the global recovery weighed on U.S. stocks. China reported weaker-than- expected retail sales and the Bank of England lowered its economic outlook. Back in the U.S., weekly new unemployment claims rose to a six month high of 484,000, which was worse than the Breifing.com consensus of 465,000. Initial claims have remained between 450,000 and 500,000 since the middle of November 2009. Retail sales rose 0.4% in July, slightly below the Briefing.com consensus of 0.5%. Almost all of the gain can be attributed to increased demand for gasoline and motor vehicles. Core sales -- which excludes sales from auto dealers, gasoline stations, and building materials and supply stores -- declined 0.1%. As a result, Briefing.com economist Jeff Rosen reduced his third quarter GDP forecast to 0.7% from 1.0%. On a related note, the trade deficit expanded by a greater-than-expected amount which will negatively impact the second estimate to Q2 GDP. Earnings report season continues to wind down in the upcoming week, but there are some potentially market-moving names slated to report. Dell (DELL), Lowe’s (LOW), Home Depot (HD), Wal-Mart (WMT), Deere (DE) and Target (TGT) are among the 14 S&P 500 companies confirmed to report on Briefing.com’s economic calendar. Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD % DJIA 10653.56 10303.15 -350.41 -3.3 -1.2 Nasdaq 2288.47 2173.48 -114.99 -5.0 -4.2 S&P 500 1121.64 1079.25 -42.39 -3.8 -3.2 Russell 2000 650.68 609.40 -41.28 -6.3 -2.6

Today's market recap - Aug 13,2010

http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101692

Economic data wasn't completely terrible today, in a refreshing change of pace -- but the news wasn't exactly cause for celebration, either. July retail sales inched up 0.4%, said the Commerce Department, marking the first gain in three months. However, the gain was largely attributed to higher gasoline prices, which dampened any potential enthusiasm over the results. Meanwhile, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index climbed to 69.6 in August, surpassing expectations -- but still well below June's reading of 76.0. Traders were also treated to a scathing review of U.S. monetary policy from Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who criticized near-zero interest rates as "a dangerous gamble"on the part of his central-banking peers. Following a feverish round of panic selling earlier in the week, traders found no motivation to make any major moves ahead of the weekend, leaving stocks to shuffle between slim gains and modest losses throughout the session. (From Schaffer research)

today's marketing guess - Aug 13

My guess is:

a shallow down then followed with bigger long buying. But the rebounce maybe very short because Vectorvest indicated 3 red lights last night and the trend is down.

HINDENBURG OMEN

Today bought 100 share of ARNA for fun... Wait for NEWs from FDA approval.. It can approve any day between now and Sep 16. So will hold it till the news announced. If it gets approved, sell the position and play BULL short right away, just as MNTA. or the money is gone.. 6.68 in the position today.

ARNA is in up trend. 7 day MA is above 14 and 25 days. Today it dipped and the up trend is not broken yet though MACD heads down and STO is down. As long as the MA stands, it should not be a big problem. Just use 700 to buy an opportunity for a month or less. Why not?

Closed my position -TSRA this morning

FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free

Closed my put option for TSRA, Margin around 25%. Bought at 4.00 and sold at 5.40.

08/11/2010 After Bell Quick Summary - Aug 11,2010

08/11/2010 After Bell Quick Summary

OO, big selling off internationally today. I kept my short position overnight and will see how it goes.

According to Cobra, 32 0f 48 times the next day after a Major Distribution Day closed in GREEN. So let's wait and see.

According to VectorVest Yesterday, the Trend is DNUP. It means the momentum for the uptrend is holding up and flat. The RT is below 1.00 now, which means the market trend may start to turn. All the data from 8000 stocks indicates that at least the bullish trend is stagging and flat.

For my put- TSRA. The stock closed at 15.79, which is 2.89% down. Relatively more buying and selling happened at the last hour. Currently the Price is just at the lower BB, which a relative strong support level. A gapped down down window opened today. 5 days continued price down with increase volume up. STO is below 20. MACD Cross the Dead Cross and starts to head down.

Two scenario:

1. If the market goes up sharply tomorrow, the open gapped down window may be filled.

2. If market not bullish enough, it will keep wonder at the lower BB and if it can hold today's closing price, the price will keep going down. If the price breaks 15.50, it will be a free fall.

I am not sure what will be the situation. That is why today I am hesitate to close my position. Previously I mentioned for this stock, I don't want to hold up too long because the volatility is not too attractive to keep for long, even days.

Strategy:

If the price keep going down, I will close the position tomorrow.

If the price goes up, I will hold it till Friday and wait till tomorrow's market development.

Market Recap: DJIA Tests 10,700 and Fails After FOMC's Cautious Statement - Aug 10,2010

Market Recap: DJIA Tests 10,700 and Fails After FOMC's Cautious Statement:

"Traders were bracing for the worst ahead of today's highly anticipated decision on monetary policy from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) spent most of the session sitting on a triple-digit deficit, thanks to downbeat data on U.S. productivity and Chinese imports. The mid-afternoon Fed announcement helped stocks erase some of their losses, with the central bankers reiterating that interest rates will remain at record-low levels for an extended period -- and unveiling plans to invest in longer-term U.S. Treasurys. However, it was hard to overlook the gloomy bottom line of the FOMC statement, with the group noting that the economic recovery is progressing much more slowly than previously expected. As a result, stocks finished the day off their session lows, but still firmly in negative territory -- where they kept company with the greenback. 'The dollar dropped after the Fed said they would buy longer-term government debt to help the economy,' explained Senior Technical Strategist Ryan Detrick. 'This was good news for the euro, as it soared after the Fed decision.'"

TSRA: 16.26 -0.55 (-3.27%) - Tessera Technologies, Inc.- Aug 10 After Market Recap

TSRA: 16.26 -0.55 (-3.27%) - Tessera Technologies, Inc.

Chip Section started selling off today before the FMOC meeting. TSRA went down 3.27%, opened gap down, which is a valid confirmed sell signal by Candle Stick charts.

Even though the market shed the down after the meeting, TSRA struggled to climb up till mid 16 dollars and couldn't stand and keep falling down till market close at 16.26, which is 3.27% down. For Options, it s estimated at 15% gain. Also the volume at the last hours is accumulated selling off.

I haven't check the chart and indicators yet, just by looking at the price chart from Google Finance. The whole Technology session went down by 1.4%.

Today noticeable put options are purchased, high put/call ratio is a significant signal to help to detect the bullish or bearish of this stock. Currently it s trading below its 50 day and 200 day MA, which is weak. However, the volume is still light.

I will keep close look at this tomorrow again. Currently I didn't find strong resistant and supporting price yet. I will just use the MA and BB as reference.

Daily Options Trading for Tessera Technologies Inc.- Aug 10,2010 (TSRA)

This is from the web:

http://www.marketintellisearch.com/articles/1037607.html

NEW YORK (Market Intellisearch) -- Unusual volume of put contracts was traded today. There were 3,080 puts contracts versus the ten day average volume of 773. On the calls side, 309 calls contracts were traded. Today's traded Put/Call ratio is 9.97. There were 9.97 puts traded for each call contract.

The following alerts were raised:
- Unusual Put Volume
- High Put/Call Ratio

Put/Call ratio is often used to measure investor sentiment, the ratio serves as a predictor of investor behavior. A high Put/Call ratio suggests that the investor sentiment is bearish and that investors expect the underlying stock to decrease in value. In contrast, a low Put/Call ratio suggests that the investor sentiment is bullish and that the underlying stock is expected to increase in value. Unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.

Tessera Technologies Inc. closed at $16.87 in the last trading session and opened today at $16.85. The stock price declined $0.06 (-0.36%) to $16.81 in today's trading session. TSRA is trading between the range of $16.74 - $17.00. Volume is 443,720 in relation to the three month average volume of 584,465 shares. TSRA is trading below the 50 day moving average and lower than the 200 day moving average. The stock's 52 week low is $15.17 and 52 week high is $32.17.

Tomorrow's market guessing- Aug 10,2010

Everyone is waiting for tomorrow's FOMC, the result is expected to maintain its rock-bottom interest rates. According to Cobra, Most FOMC days are up, 14 out of 17 recently is up!

Today's market summary:

"Stocks blazed a steady path higher today" - Schaffer Research

DOW - 0.4% up

S &P - 0.6% up

NASQ - 0.8% up

with lighter volume.

Levels to Watch in Trading: (http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101577&obspage=2)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,698.75) - support at 9,500; resistance at 12,000
• S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,127.79) - support at 950; resistance at 1,300
• Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,305.69) - support at 1,900; resistance at 2,600

According to Cobra, the S &P Fib retrace point may occur at 1131. Keep close watch for that number. It is not that far now.

My long term holding from the DRIP program MCD is up, and hit new annual high today (73.33) :))

Today got the put position for TSRA, a recommendation from web.

16.81 -0.06 -0.36%fyi
After Hours: 16.88 +0.07/+0.39% Vol. 12,798
Previous Close	16.87	Bid	16.34
Open	17.00	Bid Size	200
Day's High	17.00	Ask	16.88
Day's Low	16.74	Ask Size	5,000
Volume	446,052	52 Week High	32.17
Avg. Daily Vol. (13 wk.)	571,133	52 Week Low	15.17

Beta	1.36
Dividend & Yield	NA
Earnings/Share	0.86
Forward P/E	12.83
Market Cap.	840.97 Mil
P/E	19.78
Return on Equity	7.55
Total Shares Out.	50.03 Mil

Financial highlights

Sales*	261.43 Mil
Income*	43.30 Mil
Sales Growth*	+20.60%
Income Growth*	+26.60%
Net Profit Margin	16.56%
Debt/Equity Ratio	NA

* last 12 months

More financial information

Funds that own TSRA

Fund Name	% Own
Fidelity Growth Company Fund	8.4
Morgan Stanley Institutional Small Co. Growth Portfolio	3.3
Royce Value Plus Fund	2.3

The avg. daily vol is 570K,, which is not a big heavy traded stock, still in semiconductor section.

Chart view:

MACD Topped, STO is heading down. Continuous Price going down for 3 days with increase volume. 7day, 14day, 25day MA get together by today. STORSI is weak as well.

Option view:

put/call open interest ratio = 0.34

Options Expiring Friday, August 20, 2010

Calls Strike Price Puts Symbol Last Change Bid Ask Volume Open Int Symbol Last Change Bid Ask Volume Open Int TSRA100821C00012500 N/A 0.00 4.20 4.50 0 0 12.50 TSRA100821P00012500 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 2 2 TSRA100821C00014000 3.40 0.00 2.75 2.90 4 16 14.00 TSRA100821P00014000 0.30 0.00 N/A 0.05 1 1 TSRA100821C00015000 1.90 0.13 1.75 1.90 47 453 15.00 TSRA100821P00015000 0.15 0.00 N/A 0.05 24 226 TSRA100821C00016000 1.05 0.25 0.90 1.05 86 647 16.00 TSRA100821P00016000 0.20 0.03 0.15 0.20 152 77 TSRA100821C00017500 0.25 0.05 0.15 0.20 9 3,542 17.50 TSRA100821P00017500 0.80 0.20 0.85 0.95 439 442 TSRA100821C00019000 0.06 0.00 N/A 0.05 40 400 19.00 TSRA100821P00019000 2.15 0.10 2.15 2.30 78 0 TSRA100821C00020000 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 13 154 20.00 TSRA100821P00020000 3.20 1.07 3.10 3.30 59 50 TSRA100821C00021000 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 6 6 21.00 TSRA100821P00021000 4.20 0.00 4.10 4.30 1,849 0

For price at 17.50. Open interests for call and put is 3542/439, which mean short speculator are really favor the bullish side.

My strategy:

1. Stop loss as always : 30%

2. The price is not volatile too much from today's performance. Based on the historical low price and current price level, this will be an extreme short hold position, maybe till this Friday or at most next Friday.

3. The market is still in up trend and nowhere direction till tomorrow's meeting. Therefore, it is a gambling now to play naked buy PUTs.

4. The market is still in the uptrend but flattering. Will tomorrow be the pivot day?