7/8 - 7/23 ( 2 weeks holding)
Entry: 15.6.
Friday, July 23, 2010
My DO review - July 23
The reason for the price down includes:
1. Of course, the ER.
2. The section -Bearish as total recently.
Current Status:
1. 3 continuous day down trend, with increased volume, extremely high volume yesterday. The down trend is confirmed.
2. EMA, short term <>
3. MACD "dead cross" - bearish
4. STO Down - bearish
5 ,STORSI - down, but almost at the bottom.
I tried to search for the similar pattern for this, and I couldn't find any exact situation in recent history. If the market keeps going like this, DO is not in a big trend for strong up, at least as of today and has the potential to keep going down.
Based on my entry price for this position, currently is above 25%, I may choose to close it before today's market close.
This time the position holds a little bit longer than what I usually do,, but anyway, I am happy if the result is positive, at least not to loose money.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
DO - Updates for July 21
Bernanke's speech turned the market down.
My DO is down 1%. The DOJI reversal is not kept today by a black candle. STOCHRSI looks bad on the chart, price down with increased volume. Today's volume is still below average. Bearish in sum.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
today's market -July 20
If yesterday market is still a little bit indecisive, today the bulls took control and stamped their authority. Congratulations, bull!
Today S & P gain a volume accumulation day.
I am knocked out for my DO. Huge price gap for intra day trading... 61.50 - 65.00. Now i am sinked. It s trigged by the mat/energy rally. DO formed a DOJI yesterday and today engulf pattern, reversal pattern. Need to confirm by tomorrow. STO and MACD still indicate weak.
Currently i am close looking at CROX.
AAPL 5% up for after market price.
Setting the Stage for Diamond Offshore Drilling's Earnings Announcement; DO, PBR, RIG, PWE
From Google Finance
DO scheduled the ER on Thursday July 22. Whisper is $1.77 per share. Consensus is $2.79 per share a year ago. It seems the company performed worse this year. (Bearish)
This morning, DO down 1%, now the price is around $62. It is trading below its 20- day, 50 day and 200 day MA. As i estimated, if the price breaks 60, it s a free fall. Some traders are trading PUT at 50- 55 price range (vertical spread), which mean they can maximize the profit if the DO can trade at the strike price. ($55).
According to the web, we also have to look into other companies in the same industry for their performance. PBR, the largest one, weak, trade below EMA (20,50, 200), as well as RIG.
tomorrow's market will start selling off? (July 20)
The ER for IBM is not good, same for TXN selling off after market. I can foresee a down trend for tomorrow's market. If we have some bad news about Europe, it will get worse.
Currently people are very sensitive to any bad news. Besides as I mention earlier, this week is the worse of July. A down trend is ahead of us tomorrow. -Mid night of July 20.
Monday, July 19, 2010
RECAP of previous week (June 12-June 16)
I like the summary. For reference only.
Recap of the Previous Week: Weak Consumer Sentiment Report Sparked Plunge
By Joseph Hargett, Senior Equities Analyst
We were about to celebrate the July rally, until the consumer sentiment report arrived on Friday, revealing a continued and deep-seated wariness about the direction of the economy. The week's gains disappeared in the blink of an eye.
Earnings season kicked off on Monday, and anticipation ahead of Alcoa Inc.'s (AA) unofficial start to this quarter's round of reports held Wall Street largely in check. Traders were concerned about poor economic data out of China, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) still managed to end the day in (barely) positive territory, adding 0.18%.
Patient bulls were rewarded on Tuesday, as in-line earnings and a cautiously positive earnings outlook by Alcoa provided the impetus for a triple-digit gain for the Dow. Wall Street was in such a good mood that it even shrugged off news that Moody's downgraded Portugal's sovereign debt ratings. When the dust finally cleared, the DJIA had added 146 points, or 1.44%, to close above the 10,300 level for the first time since June 21.
On Wednesday, the blue-chip barometer extended its winning streak to seven sessions in a row, but only by the skin of its teeth, advancing 3.7 points, or a tiny 0.04%, on the session. Weak June retail data set an early tone, as the Commerce Department reported that sales at U.S. retailers declined 0.5% in June. Furthermore, minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee revealed the Fed's lowered outlook for U.S. economic growth, including the group's "need to consider whether further policy stimulus might become appropriate if the outlook were to worsen appreciably." Eek.
The Fed's worries about the slow recovery, along with weak manufacturing data out of the New York and Philadelphia areas, weighed heavily on the market on Thursday. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), the first of the big banks to report earnings, offered up a report that exceeded expectations, but CEO Jamie Dimon was less than upbeat in his comments about the economy's health. The Dow spent much of the day as much as 100 points or more in the red. However, last-minute rumors -- later confirmed -- that Goldman Sachs (GS) reached a settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission reinvigorated the bulls, and stocks pared most of their losses by the close. The Dow ended its seven-session winning streak, but closed down only 0.07%.
The Goldman settlement, and the news Thursday that BP plc (BP) had finally managed to cap the Gulf oil leak, might ordinarily have provided a jumpstart to trading on Friday. But consumer sentiment fell off a cliff in July, reaching its lowest level since August 2009. The consumer sentiment index, which is a survey conducted by Reuters and the University of Michigan, fell to 66.5 in early July from 76 in late June. Analysts had expected a much smaller drop-off. Traders were also clearly disappointed by earnings in the financial sector, particularly by Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C.) The Dow responded by sinking like stone. By the close, the Dow had dropped 261.41 points, or 2.52%, wiping out the week's gains and then some. The Dow lost about 1% on the week, while the S&P 500 Index slipped 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
My position DO follow up - July 19
On Friday, DO went down for 5.10%, disregard the Thursday's last 90 mins up (GS effect). A down solid bar formed on Friday with increased volume, indicating the DO is weak. STO is peaked and turning direction. MACD is at the top and haven't reversed yet. But the up trend is slow down and if the price keeps going down by next week, MACD should turn down. Remember, MACD is a lag indicator anyway.
The MA 14 is still above MA 25. The lower BB = 59.79. Currently I didn't see any significant support for DO. Target price will be around 60. On July 22 it will have ER. Critical day.
In sum, currently it's hard to say that it s 100% down, but at least it s turning to weak position, compared to the previous week. Price, pattern, volume all indicate the bearish trend, except the EMA ( divergent a little bit). Plus the ER is by next week. If ER is not good and price breaks down 60, I can foresee a free fall possible.
I am still holding it. Let's wait and see how it goes next week.
Next week's forecast-July 19
Accordingly, next week will be the most bearish week of July. Let' s watch it and see if it will happen this year.
My take for next week will be a continuous down trend with more selling off. It may last 1-2 weeks, which is a good chance to close short position and start to look for long positions as well. I have to close watch the Monday's market.
Next week Tech Stock ER Calendar (June 19- June 25)
Monday - IBM (after market)
Tuesday - GS (before market) YHOO (after market)
Wednesday - ISRG (after market) BIDU (after market) MS (before market)
Thursday - AMZN (after market) AXP(after market) MSFT (after market)
Friday - MCD (before market)
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