MRVL 21.00 SEP 10P - 4.75.
The price is way up at the BB after its ER.
Short term.
Friday, August 20, 2010
get position for MRVL put option today
FreeStockCharts.com - Web's Best Streaming Realtime Stock Charts - Free
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Today's market recap - Aug 19,2010
U.S. stocks were down Thursday as disappointing economic reports continue to be the focus point. Initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 500,000, and as expected, had a very negative effect on the market. What a surprising number!!!!
The Philadelphia Fed index unexpectedly plunged to negative 7.7 in August, marking a 13-month low.
Chart reading:
Nasdaq: LH, LL, very bearish, hit the 50MA and pull back. Higher Volume.
Dow: LH,LL, bearish, below 50MA, Higher V.
S &P: LH,LL, bearish, below 50MA, Higher V.
VIX: Again found support at 200MA, bearish
My strategy for tomorrow:
Still sideline. No position.
Reason:
1. OE day, historically it s mostly up.
2. From the put/call charts, and the rules of Max hurts, currently more puts Open Interests are still at beyond the current points. Only if the market trend up, these contracts will expire worthless, for all three markets.. therefore, suppose it should trend up tomorrow.
3. However, so bad indices came out today will have big effects on the market and any lower index or worse economic news will have extended influence on tomorrow's market.
4. After a big distribution day, it s more possibly going up next day.
Therefore, under the uncertainties about these, and conflicts in bullish and bearish factors, I am sideline again, but leaning towards the downside. And in hunting mode for any put options, at least for Sep's forwarding. If the market cant rebound, which will strengthen my bearing point of view, then I will definitely go short or start to buy some put options.
Key observing points tomorrow:
1. S &P: 1070 hold or not (if not, cautious!!!) Fib 61.8% at 1056. (From Cobra)
2. Respect the charts!!!
Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1-Aug 19,2010
Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1
Forwarded from website.
Remember this Hinderburg Omen?
Hindenburg Omen Confirmation #1
| Today we got our first Hindenburg Omen confirmation. The number of new highs was 136, and new lows was at 69 (per the traditional WSJ source). Granted this particular criteria set was a little weak as the 69 is precisely on the borderline for confirmation (the 2.2%), and the new highs number was not more than double the new lows (although it was close). Less gating were the McClellan oscillator which was negative at -83.6, and the 10 week MVA, which rose, which were the two remaining conditions. The first omen was spotted on August 12 - a week later the H.O has been confirmed. The more confirmations, the scarier it gets from a technical perspective, not to mention the conversion into a self-fulfilling prophecy (like every other technical indicator). |
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain- Aug 18,2010
Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain
Surfing the website for almost 2 hours and still didn't have a clue about the direction of the market tomorrow. So far all the guess about the market for this week is correct.
Struggling to forecast for tomorrow's direction. 50%, 50%. I am lean to a down day tomorrow. But several indicators points to a continuous rebound not over yet. Therefore, no confidence in what to say about tomorrow. And same in cash position today again.
Opening View: DJIA Bulls Lose Momentum After 100-Point Jump
Opening View: DJIA Bulls Lose Momentum After 100-Point Jump
Before the market opening briefing. As I estimated last night, it may lose momentum and open low. Let's see how it goes. Still in hunting mood for deers.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain
Market Recap: DJIA Snaps Losing Streak with 103-Point Gain
Sick today and feel tired.
As expected , yesterday's magic number "5" worked, just joke, But several reversal signal hints today's gap up. Besides, Walmart and Home Depot's Earning will not be that bad accordingly. So my guess proved to be valid and today it had gapped up widely.
Just briefed the market recap and estimated for tomorrow:
uptrend still, may open low an close green.
Keep watching for position for put options or I will just in cash. Don't forget this is OE week and today's up momentum is too strong.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Stock recommend for long term invest -Dividend has double digit for 10 years. (Aug 16, 2010)
Here is the lists of the company that have dividend of double digit for the 10 years and continue to increase the rate in the five years. As a long term investment, these are really good and 100% priority stock to put money in. You can either buy them through DRIP program or buy them at the current market price.
JNJ: Johnson & Johnson
PG: Procter and Gamble
PEP: Pepsi
VFC: VF Corperation
MCD: McDonald
KO: Coca-Cola
Attention: Buffet has JNJ, PG, KO.
I have MCD as long term through DRIP.
Buffet's holding as 06/30/2010 (Filed 08/16/2010)
American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) over 151.6 million shares, SAME as last quarter.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) 5 million shares; SAME as last quarter.
Becton Dickinson & Co. (NYSE: BDX) is 1.889 million shares, UP FROM 1.744 million shares last quarter and was a raised position last quarter too from 1.5 million shares before and versus 1.2 million before that.
Carmax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is 7,725,900, SAME AS BEFORE; had been reduced from 8 million shares the prior quarter and versus 9 million shares a quarter before that.
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO) right at 200 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Comcast (NASDAQ: CMCSA) 12 million shares, SAME as before.
Comdisco Holdings (NASDAQ: CDCO) roughly 1.5 million shares, SAME as before.
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is roughly 29.1 million shares, A LOWER STAKE than the prior 34.179 million shares and yet another cut from 37.7 million two quarters ago and 57.43 million and 62.485 million before that.
Costco Wholesale (NASDAQ: COST) 4,333,363 Shares, SAME as last quarter but that is after it had been lowered from 5.254 million before.
Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) 421,800 shares; SAME as before but lowered from 1.276 million shares originally.
Fiserv, Inc. (NASDAQ: FISV) is a NEW POSITION of 4.4 million shares.
Gannett Co. (NYSE: GCI) 1,740,231 SHARES; SAME as before, but a decrease from earlier.
General Electric Corp. (NYSE: GE) 7.777 million shares; SAME as before but does not include the huge preferred shares from late in 2008.
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) 1.51 million shares, SAME as before.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) is not listed but was a not common stock so is not included in these filings; Buffett still likely holds the preferred shares and warrants.
Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) 2.757 million, SAME as last quarter.
Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) 5.636 million shares, SAME as last quarter but way down from the 7.78 million a year ago.
Iron Mountain (NYSE: IRM) is 8 Million shares, A HIGHER POSITION versus 7,794,800 shares last quarter, and above 7 million shares and versus 3.3722 million shares in the quarters before then.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is almost41.1.3 million shares, AN INCREASED POSITION from last quarter’s 27 million shares. This gets J&J back above the 36.91 million shares before that and on the way back up to the 62 million shares at one point in 2008.
Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT) is 105.21 million, which is DOWN SLIGHTLY from the 106.7+ million a quarter before and down from the 138+ million before he was critical of the Cadbury deal.
Lowe’s Companies (NYSE: LOW) 6.5 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
M&T Bank Corp. (NYSE: MTB) is 5.363 million, A DECREASE from 5.563 million shares before that and down from 6.71 million shares before that.
Moody’s Corp. (NYSE: MCO) 30.783 million, which appears to be a decrease from what we listed as 30.83 million last quarter. This is way down from the 48 million originally before two more quarters of decreases.
NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) was 6 million shares.
Nalco Holding (NYSE: NLC) 9.15 million shares, UP SLIGHTLY from the 9.0 million a quarter earlier.
Nestle ADR is 3.4 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) 7.641 million shares, SAME AS BEFORE.
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is 70.071 million shares; DOWN SLIGHTLY from over 78.317 million a quarter before and from approximately 87.5 million and 96.3 million in the quarters before that.
Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) is 10.827 million shares; SAME AS BEFORE but still above the prior quarter.
Sanofi Aventis (NYSE: SNY) is 4.063 million, which appears to be higher than what we calculated as being “more than 3.9 million shares” a quarter earlier. That one could be a rounding difference.
Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) is NOT a common stock… but Buffett still holds the preferred shares and warrants.
Torchmark Corp. (NYSE: TMK) roughly 2.82 million, SAME AS before.
US Bancorp (NYSE: USB) roughly 69 million; SAME AS last quarter.
USG Corp. (NYSE: USG) 17.072 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) 1.429 million shares, SAME AS before.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is just over 39 million; SAME AS last quarter after it had been raised earlier.
Washington Post (NYSE: WPO) over 1.72 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: was roughly 325 million shares, which appears mostly static after having been raised in the quarters before.
Wesco Financial Corp. (NYSE: WSC) 5.703 million shares, SAME AS last quarter.
08/16/2010 After Bell Quick Summary
08/16/2010 After Bell Quick Summary
Today's volume is extremely low.. With three reversal bar and 6 continuous gap down in a row SPY gap down 5 days in a row, what can you expect? For Japanese Candle stick, 3,5,7 are all magic numbers, patterns are recognized in 3, 5 or 7. My guess tomorrow is that it may gap up open. But the market is playing to the bias to the down trend.
Some comments summary from web:
1. Critical support points for S &P 500: 1055 -1075. If it can be hold, the down trend can be relieved a little bit. Otherwise, be cautious it may go down as far as 1010.
Today's market recap:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,302.01) recovered from a triple-digit loss to end only 1.1 points, or 0.01%, in the red. Twelve of the Dow's 30 blue chips ended in the black, with Cisco Systems (CSCO) leading the advancers while Boeing (BA) and 3M Company (MMM) paced the 18 lagging equities. While the index may have settled its fifth straight session south of breakeven, the Dow maintained its foothold atop the round-number 10,300 level.
The S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,079.38) also recovered from an intraday deficit to eke out a gain of 0.1 point, or 0.01%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,181.87) fared the best of the major market indexes, adding 8.4 points, or 0.4%, by the closing bell.
ARNA: 7.05 0.42 (6.33%) --Market Close Summary Aug 16,2010
Good performance today. Position is still open. Only 100 shares though. Not enough to cover my margin, commission yet.
This is a natural response after the stop loss triggered. Remember, yesterday it has a huge drop.
(from 7.17 to 6.63).
For me, continue on this dangerous game? or out? A challenge for my greedy and fear.. Greedy for giant profit after the FDA approval. Fear the re-bounce after stop loss triggered that it will lose the momentum for up and sink..
100 shares, may still keep and see. Greedy > fear. (MA is still OK status, short term above longer term. MACD/STO still heading down, but at a slower speed,MFI down, STORSI is up - the only better indicator)
Some people recommend ARUN. And I found the chart is not bad.. will add to my watch list and keep an eye on it tomorrow.
ARNA -Close at 7.05 (+6.33%)
Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: NASDAQ:ARNA quotes & news - Google Finance
OO, this stock is skyrocket. Closed by 6.33% up. I only bought 100 share. (Position is still open.)
ARNA: 6.92 0.29 (4.37%) - Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Aug 16 Morning Updates
ARNA: 6.92 0.29 (4.37%) - Arena Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
It s in up move this morning. and GAP UP today.
Strategy from Hutong today:
1. Bull :10248 bottom line. If it breakdown, Sell short.
2. Bear: 10393 bottom line. If it breakup, buy long.
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Weekly overview from Schafferreseach - Aug 15,2010
Recap of the Previous Week: Slip Sliding Away
By Joseph Hargett, Senior Equities Analyst
(http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101693)
The D word -- as in double-dip -- began as a whisper and turned into a full-throated roar last week. Fears that the U.S. economy would slip back into recession grew with every successive economic report. Employment remains weak. Growth prospects are dimming around the globe. Manufacturing was weaker than expected in both Japan and China, and the Bank of England cut its outlook for the British economy. Everyone from Goldman Sachs to the Federal Reserve agreed that economic recovery is progressing more slowly than expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reacted by slumping back below its June highs, reversing the gains of late July and early August.
At least the week started off on an entertaining note, as traders considered the surprise Friday resignation of Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) CEO Mark Hurd, following a sexual-harassment claim. As details unfolded -- did they? didn't they? -- Hurd critics and defenders laid out their cases. Meanwhile, back on Wall Street, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) from 1,250 to 1,200. Nonetheless, the Dow recorded a solid 0.42% gain for the day.
The Dow sank at the open on Tuesday, dropping 150 points, thanks to disappointing reports on U.S. productivity and Chinese imports. But the big news of the day came from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Fed committee reported that economic recovery is progressing, albeit very slowly. It also reiterated the Fed's longstanding pledge to keep interest rates at record-low levels for an extended period and announced plans to invest in longer-term U.S. Treasurys. The Dow pared most of it losses by the end of the day -- dropping 0.51% -- but a gloomy tone had been established.
Wednesday's sell-off began overseas, and financial terminals around the world displayed a sea of red. Both China and Japan released data revealing a slowdown in manufacturing activity, and the Bank of England forecast slower growth for Great Britain -- echoing the Fed's statement of a day earlier. Meanwhile, here in the U.S., the trade deficit unexpectedly widened in June. The Dow tumbled out of the gate and drifted lower throughout the day, finally settling near the session's lows. When the dust cleared, the Dow dropped 265 points, or 2.49%, and slipped below the support of its 200-day moving average.
Any hopes for a Thursday bounce were probably dashed Wednesday night when blue-chip tech titan Cisco Systems (CSCO) confessed to weaker-than-anticipated revenue. CSCO also tempered its outlook for the next quarter and year; CEO John Chambers told analysts that the company is seeing "mixed signals" and an "unusual uncertainty" from customers. Then, to seal the bearish deal, the Labor Department announced a surprise increase in first-time jobless claims. The Dow dropped another 0.57%.
On Friday, inflation hawk Thomas Hoenig, the president of the Kansas City Fed, delivered a major speech in which he criticized near-zero interest rates as "a dangerous gamble." Hoenig has long been dissenting from the Fed's pledge to keep interest rates near zero for an "extended period." Elsewhere, July retail sales inched up 0.4%, and the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence index climbed to 69.6 in August, surpassing expectations. The Dow settled for a slim loss of 0.16%. The Dow ended the week 3.3% lower, while its major market brethren fared even worse. The SPX lost 3.8% for the week, while Nasdaq Composite dropped an ouch-worthy 5%. All three major market indexes are below breakeven for the year.
Next weeks' market guessing - Aug 15,2010
Next week is the Aug Option Expiration week. The above weekly S &P 500 Candle Sticks with Bearish Engulfing pattern didn't show bull friendly. And the RSI is TOPPED,, which may indicate not too much bullish next week.
Historically the Monday is bullish. My guess is that the first half of the week may still be greenish and then trending down.
Next week's Calendar:
Monday
The New York Fed will release its Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August on Monday. Agilent Technologies Inc. (A), Lowe's Companies Inc. (LOW), Sysco Corp. (SYY), and Urban Outfitters Inc. (URBN) will release their quarterly earnings reports.
Tuesday
Traders will have a lot of economic data to consider on Tuesday. The Commerce Department will release reports on housing starts and building permits for July, while the Labor Department will supply July readings on the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the core PPI. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will report on industrial production in July. Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), The Home Depot Inc. (HD), Saks Inc. (SKS), Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), and Analog Devices Inc. (ADI) are scheduled to report earnings.
Wednesday
The usual weekly report on U.S. petroleum supplies is due on Wednesday. BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (BJ), Chico's FAS Inc. (CHS), Target Corp. (TGT), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Brocade Communications Systems Inc. (BRCD), Hot Topic Inc. (HOTT), and Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) will post their quarterly results.
Thursday
The weekly report on initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday, along with the Conference Board's Leading Indicators Index for July, and the Philadelphia Fed Index for August. Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. (DKS), Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR), GameStop Corp. (GME), Stein Mart Inc. (SMRT), Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd. (YGE), Aeropostale Inc. (ARO), Blue Coat Systems Inc. (BCSI), Dell Inc. (DELL), The Gap Inc. (GPS), Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ), Intuit Co. (INTU), Marvell Technology Group Ltd. (MRVL) and salesforce.com inc. (CRM) will report earnings.
Friday
There are no major economic reports scheduled for Friday. Rounding out earnings for the week will be AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (ANN) and Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL).
About Hindenburg Omen
This Omen has appeared before all of the stock market crashes, or panic events, of the past 22 years.
- The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day (currently, greater than or equal to 69, which is above 2.2% of 3126).
- The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
- The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
- New 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
The occurrence of all five criteria on one day is often referred to as an unconfirmed Hindenburg Omen.
A confirmed Hindenburg Omen occurs if a second (or more) Hindenburg Omen signals occur during a 36-day period from the first signal.
Historical Review:
1. The probability of a move greater than 5% to the downside after a confirmed Hindenburg Omen was 77%, and usually takes place within the next forty-days.
2. The probability of a panic sellout was 41% and the probability of a major stock market crash was 24%.
3. Out of the previous 25 confirmed signals only 8% (two) have failed to predict at least mild (2.0% to 4.9%) declines.
4. Of the previous 26 confirmed Hindenburg Omen signals, seven (27.0 percent ) were followed by financial system threatening, life-as-we-know-it threatening stock market crashes. Three (11.5 percent) more were followed by stock market selling panics (10% to 14.9% declines). Four more (15.4 percent) resulted in sharp declines (8% to 9.9% drops). Six (23.0 percent) were followed by meaningful declines (5% to 7.9%), four (15.4 percent) saw mild declines (2.0% to 4.9%), and two (7.7 percent) were failures, with subsequent declines of 2.0% or less.
Recent occurrences
- August 12, 2010: A Hindenburg Omen occurred, the first since the market lows of 2009. One nearly occurred on August 11, failing only in that 67 stocks hit new lows, rather than the required 69.
- June 22, 2007: There were 3,422 NYSE issues traded, with 88 New Highs and 73 New Lows, the lesser number equal to 2.13 percent of total issues traded, almost 2.20 percent. The McClellan Oscillator was negative -116.59.
- June 21, 2007: There were 3,434 NYSE issues traded, with 106 New Highs and 75 New Lows, the lesser number equal to 2.18 percent of total issues traded, almost 2.20 percent. The McClellan Oscillator was negative -36.65.
- June 13, 2007: There were 3,428 NYSE issues traded, with 96 New Highs and 95 New Lows, the common number equal to 2.77 percent of total issues traded, above the minimum requirement of 2.20 percent. The McClellan Oscillator was negative -116.92.
What is the rationale behind this indicator?
Under normal conditions, either a substantial number of stocks establish new annual highs or a large number set new lows ?but not both.? When both new highs and new lows are large, 搃t indicates the market is undergoing a period of extreme divergence ?many stocks establishing new highs and many setting new lows as well. Such divergence is not usually conducive to future rising prices. A healthy market requires some semblance of internal uniformity, and it doesn抰 matter what direction that uniformity takes. Many new highs and very few lows is obviously bullish, but so is a great many new lows accompanied by few or no new highs.
My take in for this indicator:
1. The indicator is not guarantee the occurrence of Stock. Crash.
2. As Cobra said,
You now also have to factor that the Fed is pumping liquidity to prevent crashes once these signals occur.
3. So my opinion about this: be cautious about this since it showed up, but not too cautious about this and short the stock right away. Stick to the discipline of your trading strategy, whether it is long term or short term. Change your way of trading smartly with the market and never against it.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)