Friday, July 16, 2010

Today's market summary - June 16,2010

WOW. I felt released a little bit today when the market closed. Why?

Well finally we got the expected weakness that I mentioned earlier in my previous blogs. I expected 3 days up and 2 days down for this week, even though yesterday it was going towards that direction, but was ruined by the GS settlement, besides, this week is OE.


(http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/TEC9PiG7
G0I/AAAAAAAAGZU/fDWcNMe3rxI/s320/wilshire.png)


Heading to Michigan.

Today's Consumer Sentiment Index

The Index plummet sharply down to 66.5 from 76.0 in June, and it is way below the median forecast of 74.5 among economists, which was the key factor for the market to go down today.

Reuters: It sinks to lowest in 11 months.

PS: consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator. This week's figure is further evidence of an economic weakness and slowdown.

Consumer Sentiment

昨天关市前的猛烈拉升,很可能是MM震仓

I like this comments. Please read as fas as learning from there.

Sorry it s Chinese.

昨天关市前的猛烈拉升,很可能是MM震仓

目的是明显的,把小熊熊震荡出局,把小牛牛套进来。

小散熊一般是胆小的,设好了止损线,MM迅速上拉大盘,就把一众小散的
SHORT给STOP OUT了。小散牛一见大盘牛气哄哄,马上上套,结果就被
紧紧套牢,第二天低开低走。这就是班长昨天描述的那种情况,先看牛被
STOP OUT,然后转熊,又被STOP OUT,再转牛,又被STOP OUT,连
续被STOP OUT,怎么买怎么被STOP OUT。MM的震仓技术是专门用来
STOP OUT小散的利剑。

震仓的特点是,一段趋势持续很久后,大盘逐渐无力继续,并出现转头迹象
,这时,突然发生快速的主力介入,意图是避免转头,以保持原来的趋势。
其实这是转头前的一个假动作。特点就是快速的,短时间的,大力度的拉动.

Comments on yesterday's market behavior (7/16/2010)

Yesterday's market is an action movie. Bulls and Bears are fighting,, I mean it is a battle. First, in th morning, SPY confirmed the trend change, but last half hour, it broke the downtrend line.

Today: (from Hutong9.com)

If SPY confirm the trend change again, then bulls wins.
But again heavy resistance is waiting for bulls ahead. Unless bulls gap up and flying higher. If that is the case, run, bears.

Here are my thoughts:

My estimation is still the same tone: yesterday's pull back may lead to higher breakout, so expect recovery high, but the accumulated reversal signal indicate a big pullback ahead. be careful for that if you are still bullish. I am not.

Today's market overview

Yesterday's 100 points drop should indicate the selling signal. It today's European bad news , additional selling off.

Yesterday last 90 mins sharp rebound by the GS rumor wipe off the whole day loss and market climbed up.

BP and GS.

Morning Call: Global stocks are mixed as gains in BP and Goldman Sachs offset losses in Google; Sep S&Ps up +3.70; Dollar index slides to a 2-1/4 month low


Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Tomorrow is a key day as well

If today is important, tomorrow will also be a key day. 200MA is there. Momentum is still there. So it may possibly go up higher, if that happen with big up, i am ready to accept the stop loss for my position and adjust my mindset to the bullish side.

Otherwise, reversal is certain on the way, which I still believe it is the case unless something really can convince me the opposite.

July 16 i s closing. Hold the breathe and see how we will get there. (Bullish or Bearish)?

DO: 65.91 0.58 (0.89%) - Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc.

My DO follow up - July 14, 2010

DO is still up just before 12PM today and slipped till close. The STO is topped, and MACD widen even, almost hit the top, Price is touch BB Upband, not too much change from yesterday. Still no clear signal for a reversal. The only noticeable is the Volume is down even through the price is up. July 20 is the day for Q2 earning.

According to historical data, market will start to go down by Friday. I still have to keep it till Friday.

DOW hold up the up trend and S& P negative today.

VMW + 3.8%
F: +1.29%
NFLX +1.72%
DO +0.89%

Tomorrow 's view

Tomorrow we have Retail sales , business inventories and FOMC minutes. If the reports show good, the market will have more momentum for the positive side. It looks like ppl are really over react to the market information. Today even we have some negative news, it didn't stop the momentum for the upside. Market is poised to go up.

I still remain the same viewpoint but may change my mindset that the reversal may be delayed. Let s wait and see. Double side Sword for the market.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

My position DO follow up



My position -DO

DO is kind of developed as I estimated yesterday, up and wondering.. However after 2PM, it kept UP and never looked back. I am expecting some news or other clue for this particular rally. I am still wondering if it is institutional trading after 2pm. It s too visibly greater volume from 2pm-close. The DO ends with 1.93% +, which is above the BB and the volume is above MA. STO Peak, MACD +. A DOJI is formed by today for the possible reversal pattern. To valid the pattern, key is tomorrow's open price. If it s below today's price, it valid the pattern. Or if the open price is above today's close, looking for the closing price to make a judgement. Anyway, my stop loss is 30% and I am still holding it till Friday. Remember my previous blogs for this week's analysis, where is the second fall leg?

Stock F chart - For Friend 01



Comments on F (Ford)

These day I am watching F. As I mentioned yesterday, it is in the middle way of rally and hit both the support and resistance. The 14 days MA is still below MA 25 days. Today it gap up and close at 5.05% + with larger volume. STO is peaked and MACD up.

If tomorrow the market is up, the Ford may be up, but BB showed it tends to be overbought and BB up is $12.00. Be careful though for the Gap $11.13 - $11.48. If the price fall back to $11.13. Next level of support will be $10.93. F is very hot these days not only in stock,but also in Option trade. The interesting pattern for today's price is that it s gapped up and never looked back till the last 30mins, the highest increasing is around 7%.

I may sell the position or at least dump half to keep my profit and set up my stop loss higher in case the price goes down I can still have profit.

As I estimated, the market may go down this weekend. Continuous up or down will be followed up by conversion. I hope it s the Friday, because I am still agreeing with the opinion that using this week to reduce the position and even short the stock if you want to make profit.

A Option Website

oar_etf

Today I found a free website for Option Trading. I haven't have a chance to read it yet. I will put my comments on it after some testing and watch for 2 weeks.

Morning call -Alcoa Beats Earnings (NYSE: AA) - Using ETF's In The Rally - Mike Swanson (07/13/10) | WallStreetWindow

Alcoa Beats Earnings (NYSE: AA) - Using ETF's In The Rally - Mike Swanson (07/13/10) | WallStreetWindow

Morning Call:

I totally agree with the opinion.

The earning season starts with AA beats earnings. I still believe that this is the time to reduce on your positions. I will not chase those stocks with positive earning and gap up. It will peak and pull back. In stead, if that happens, it will be a good chance to go short. This week, according to some analysis, it is still the week for lighten positions. Basically the foundation for a bullish market is not solid enough for a near bullish looking.

Anyway, my guess for DO, which I have now is still uncertain, it may go up and wondering,, which I don't hope to see. I am expecting at least Friday some reversal signal will occur.

Monday, July 12, 2010

My position DO follow up


No big change for DO- as I estimated last Sunday, it may go up and head down. That is exactly what happened today. Open higher with a gap and at the first 30mins to an hour, it heads back and kept going down and head back to yesterday's closing price, wondering at that level till market closed.

This is really not a good one stock to have. Some points for me to think about it:

1. the price touched the BB up band, and price started to pull down, in a very narrow range of BB, which direction is it heading to? UP or DOWN?

2. Intra day price bigger than 3-5% vibration. Easy to capture the intra-day trending. but a little confused at the daily chart. MACD/STO keeps up. Volume is down as the price is down. Divergence exist currently in the MACD/STO with the price trend. Short term MA is still above the mid-term MA.

3. It s not so clear now to make judgement whether it will go up or down tomorrow. Reason one: Oil Drilling - related BP and gas price; Reason two: market situation.

Anyway, it s hard for me to see the trend clearly now. I will keep holding it till at least this Friday. (30% stop loss).

Tomorrow will be an important day

Today AA after hour ER and then tomorrow INTC and YUM. JPM and financials will kick off.

After several days up last week, today there is no big sell off , which may be encouraging for the bulls, I may need to adjust my view of the market to the bull side a little bit too. As I mentioned last Sunday, historically the first three days are bullish so I am not so surprised to see a green today. The DJIA finished 0.2% +. Everyone said the leading are tech stocks (MSFT and INTC).

Look at some stocks I am watching:

C is up , above 4 dollars.
BP is up, big news leading
F is is up, in the middle term of rally
NFLX is up, potential for call/put strangle
VMW, I miss the chance for the call, still up now, not good set up last week on Monday, but it rocked up by news.
SNDK is up and never look back.

Levels to Watch in Trading: (from Schafferresearch)

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,216.27) - support at 9,500; resistance at 12,000
  • S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,078.75) - support at 950; resistance at 1,300
  • Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,198.36) - support at 1,900; resistance at 2,600
STOCKS – NEW ANNUAL HIGHS
STOCKS – NEW ANNUAL LOWS


Three Bar Reversal and Go

http://www.hutong9.net/viewthread.php?tid=86860&extra=page%3D1

I found this interesting and would like to test it.

three-bar-reversal-and-go1.png

1. Volume on the pullback bars should be lighter than the preceding up bars.
2. Trigger bar should be a reversal bar that opens lower and closes near the high of the bar.
3. Make sure that the breakout above the trigger bar has some conviction behind it.


Sunday, July 11, 2010

DO charts - www.bestfreecharts.com



Current Position - DO charts.

It hitted the BB up in the narrow band. MACD, RSI, STO indicate up trend. Volume didn't show very strong support for the up trend. Look back for historical price patterns, my guess is either will up for a little bit then head down. Stop loss at 30%, average price for PUT 80 is 15.90- 16.00. Hope I can make profit on this one.


Calendar for next week (July 12- July 16)

Calendar (All Eastern times)
Tuesday, 830am, Trade Balance, -$39.5B
Tuesday, 200pm, Treasury Budget,
Wednesday, 830am, Retail Sales ex
Wednesday, 830am, Retail Sales, -
Wednesday, 1000am, Business Inventories, 0.3%
Wednesday, 1030am, Crude Inventories
Wednesday, 1030am, FOMC Minutes
Wednesday, 1030am, Crude Inventories,
Thursday, 830am, Initial Claims, 46
Thursday, 830am, Continuing Claims
Thursday, 915am, Industrial Production,
Thursday, 915am, Capacity Utilization, 74.1
Thursday, 1000am, Philadelphia Fed
Friday, 830am, CPI (Consumer Price Index),
Friday, 900am, Net Long Term TIC Flows
Friday, 955am, Michigan Sentiment, 47

The key economic report this week will be June Retail Sales on Wednesday.

stock market time

Be a full time trader doesn't mean you have to trade all the time, a couple of hour per day is sure enough. The market trade time is something like this:

1. First hour trade can almost depict whole day trend. We can divide the first an hour into 3 session, early, middle, late. If the whole day trend is away from the first hour trade trending, it means the big gap or difference away. We have to pay special attention to that.

2. Mostly the time is as follows:

Premarket:

Lower volume, some index disclosed, or yesterday's after market earning/pre-marketing earing released, big fluctuation in the price, high risk to get position or sell. Some website will send out emails around 8:30 to forecast the market trend, key reports, calendar, earnings report, basically based on the futures, global market index, commodities, gold, gas, currencies... which is really for all of us to pay attention and know what happened and what will happen today. Anyway, it s high risky and I do not normally do any trades at this time.

9:30- 9:45 :

Agent to put the order for customers order, if you have Tier 2, you will see a lot of orders are put. Institution will normally get into the market after 9:45.

10:00- 10:30:

Critical time, a lot of numbers, index are released, which will decide the wind of the market. A lot of critical convert (up/down) trend up or trend down start to show. Bullish/bearish sides' fight start. Therefore, the first hour is always the most important hour for me to keep close watch of the market. Most of the day traders focus on the first hour to make their trades and take profit.

11:30-1:30:

Lunch time!!! Break time!!! Normally you will see slow motion and low volume. Every one need to eat, so do I. Take the time to review some comments from the website, google, yahoo. wsj, IBD, have a cup of coffee.. yeah, by the way, i quit my Coke, which I used to have more than 3 a day. ( 1 can of Coke = 18 spoons of sugar).

1:30 - 2:30:

Battle resume again. Agents keep on customer orders.

2:30:

Critical time. Institution in ,the time may start from 1:30.. A lot of change, reversals occurs. Super computer programs, time triggers. If I see big trend or wave happen during this time, i am not surprised.

3:00- 4:00:

Day trader time!!! Especially the last half 30 mins. Recently we saw a lot of selling off or buying happened during this time period. Yeah, that is right. Day traders do not keep position over night, including some institutions. It causes the market widen up and I am not surprise to see sometime my profit is totally wiped off, which is very annoying, and put the potential risk for gaps for next day's opening price. For DOW, 50 points or 100 points up or down during this time periods is not odd for recent market. Selling off or buying from big institution may misdirect the individual investor to blind follow, which will push the market toward down or up further. However, this is also a good time for day trade to maximize profit if the judgement they make is right. I always wish that I could be on the lucky side. Even though I am not doing day trading, I use this time to practice my estimating and price support/resistance test, which is not a bad idea.

4:00 - after market

not much activities, unless some companies have earning, big news etc, which will cause big move in the stock price after hours. I assisted one profession on stock research and he always asked me to keep records of the after hour price for his portfolio, which now it is my habit to keep watching the after hour price as well. Some website focuses on the after hour trade as well. Personally, I like the midnight trade.com. But it asked for subscription and it costs money, as always. There is no free dinner in the world.

Wow, I never think I will like to put this into blog.. it s in my brain. If my daughter can read this after 5 years and understand what I am talking here, i believe it worth it. Otherwise, it s nothing.

Good weather today. And it's the Final World Cup between Netherlands and Spain. I know little about them. TV is on and just curious to know the results.


Monday Morning Outlook: DJIA Soared 5 Percent; Best Week Since July 2009

Monday Morning Outlook: DJIA Soared 5 Percent; Best Week Since July 2009

Recap of the Previous Week: Dow Regains 10,000 (July 5 - July 12)

Tuesday morning - Bulls in charge, but later they couldn't maintain, Dow + 0.59% gain

Wednesday - Bulls charged and never looked back. Dow + 2.8%. regain 10,000.

Thursday - Mixed. Jobless down. Market is looking for direction. Bulls took charge for the last one hour and Dow 1.2%.

Friday - DOW + 0.58%. Unemployment rate down. GOOG led up..

NEXT WEEK??

As from the Fibonacci calculation - 1070 above or 980 Down?
According to the Stock Trader's Almanac: early week is bullish and Friday is bearish. (Monday - Wednesday)

July expiration day, DOW down 6 of last 9 times.

July is the best performing month according to their records. 60% last 100 years, 54% last 50 years and 70% last 20 years. Very Positive.

This week is 5% pullbacks. According to Cobra's log, all the past above 6% pullback had at least 2 legs down. So his guess is that there may be one more leg down, which I personally agreed with. See the pic here.

[2LegDown[2].png]

His guess is that June 16 will be the next pivot date for S & P to hit 1099 and June 29 will be a cycle bottom, (based on the magic 9 days cycle shown recently). It is an interesting find and I will focus on that.

ExpectTimeAndPriceTarget.png