Tomorrow's market guessing- Aug 10,2010

Everyone is waiting for tomorrow's FOMC, the result is expected to maintain its rock-bottom interest rates. According to Cobra, Most FOMC days are up, 14 out of 17 recently is up!

Today's market summary:

"Stocks blazed a steady path higher today" - Schaffer Research

DOW - 0.4% up

S &P - 0.6% up

NASQ - 0.8% up

with lighter volume.

Levels to Watch in Trading: (http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/observations.aspx?ID=101577&obspage=2)

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA – 10,698.75) - support at 9,500; resistance at 12,000
• S&P 500 Index (SPX – 1,127.79) - support at 950; resistance at 1,300
• Nasdaq Composite (COMP – 2,305.69) - support at 1,900; resistance at 2,600

According to Cobra, the S &P Fib retrace point may occur at 1131. Keep close watch for that number. It is not that far now.

My long term holding from the DRIP program MCD is up, and hit new annual high today (73.33) :))

Today got the put position for TSRA, a recommendation from web.

16.81 -0.06 -0.36%fyi
After Hours: 16.88 +0.07/+0.39% Vol. 12,798
Previous Close	16.87	Bid	16.34
Open	17.00	Bid Size	200
Day's High	17.00	Ask	16.88
Day's Low	16.74	Ask Size	5,000
Volume	446,052	52 Week High	32.17
Avg. Daily Vol. (13 wk.)	571,133	52 Week Low	15.17

Beta	1.36
Dividend & Yield	NA
Earnings/Share	0.86
Forward P/E	12.83
Market Cap.	840.97 Mil
P/E	19.78
Return on Equity	7.55
Total Shares Out.	50.03 Mil

Financial highlights

Sales*	261.43 Mil
Income*	43.30 Mil
Sales Growth*	+20.60%
Income Growth*	+26.60%
Net Profit Margin	16.56%
Debt/Equity Ratio	NA

* last 12 months

More financial information

Funds that own TSRA

Fund Name	% Own
Fidelity Growth Company Fund	8.4
Morgan Stanley Institutional Small Co. Growth Portfolio	3.3
Royce Value Plus Fund	2.3

The avg. daily vol is 570K,, which is not a big heavy traded stock, still in semiconductor section.

Chart view:

MACD Topped, STO is heading down. Continuous Price going down for 3 days with increase volume. 7day, 14day, 25day MA get together by today. STORSI is weak as well.

Option view:

put/call open interest ratio = 0.34

Options Expiring Friday, August 20, 2010

Calls Strike Price Puts Symbol Last Change Bid Ask Volume Open Int Symbol Last Change Bid Ask Volume Open Int TSRA100821C00012500 N/A 0.00 4.20 4.50 0 0 12.50 TSRA100821P00012500 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 2 2 TSRA100821C00014000 3.40 0.00 2.75 2.90 4 16 14.00 TSRA100821P00014000 0.30 0.00 N/A 0.05 1 1 TSRA100821C00015000 1.90 0.13 1.75 1.90 47 453 15.00 TSRA100821P00015000 0.15 0.00 N/A 0.05 24 226 TSRA100821C00016000 1.05 0.25 0.90 1.05 86 647 16.00 TSRA100821P00016000 0.20 0.03 0.15 0.20 152 77 TSRA100821C00017500 0.25 0.05 0.15 0.20 9 3,542 17.50 TSRA100821P00017500 0.80 0.20 0.85 0.95 439 442 TSRA100821C00019000 0.06 0.00 N/A 0.05 40 400 19.00 TSRA100821P00019000 2.15 0.10 2.15 2.30 78 0 TSRA100821C00020000 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 13 154 20.00 TSRA100821P00020000 3.20 1.07 3.10 3.30 59 50 TSRA100821C00021000 0.05 0.00 N/A 0.05 6 6 21.00 TSRA100821P00021000 4.20 0.00 4.10 4.30 1,849 0

For price at 17.50. Open interests for call and put is 3542/439, which mean short speculator are really favor the bullish side.

My strategy:

1. Stop loss as always : 30%

2. The price is not volatile too much from today's performance. Based on the historical low price and current price level, this will be an extreme short hold position, maybe till this Friday or at most next Friday.

3. The market is still in up trend and nowhere direction till tomorrow's meeting. Therefore, it is a gambling now to play naked buy PUTs.

4. The market is still in the uptrend but flattering. Will tomorrow be the pivot day?